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Tuesday, August 31, 2004
Today's Scenic DriveIf this road has seen maintenance since it was finished, it was barely discernable. But what a drive! Things You Won't Hear on Denver RadioOverheard on Ag Radio: the Beef Checkoff is apparently in real trouble. This is the industry program that funds NCBA, where I used to contract. It funded the "It's What's For Dinner" campaign that resurrected Aaron Copeland's career, albeit a little late. This won't be good for the industry. This Is the Great Outdoors?Ken Salazar like to brag about being a moving force behind the legislation known as Great Outdoors Colorado. Now when I think of the Great Outdoors, I think of this. I suspect you do too. I do not think of city playgrounds in Burlington, CO as the Great Outdoors. Nice city playgrounds are a worthy use of municipal funds, no doubt about it. Intelligent DesignI've always been fascinated by design. No Platonist I, I wonder why certain eras have a "look." Why things look and work the way they do, rather than some other way. Great design is a combination of great engineering, great human factors, and art. Monday, August 30, 2004 From the RoadFortunately, the "Flying J" chain of Interstate rest stops has started offering wifi at some of its locations. Road BloggingI'm on the road this week, driving around the state for a little mini-vacation before heading back to school, back to the High Holidays, and back to the uncertainty that working as a contractor entails. Last night, I stayed in Ft. Morgan, and this morning I head to Pawnee Buttes. Today, it's a drive down through the Eastern Plains of the state, to Lamar. Convention ThoughtsTwo quick thoughts. First, the networks aren't carrying squadoosh. So most people's impressions of the convention will be heavily filtered for most of the week, and crystallized by the President's speech. For many, their entire impression will be formed Thursday night. This is almost certainly good for the President. Sunday, August 29, 2004 Tyro Attacks Amendment 36As one would attack a steak, carving up before devouring it. Go to 86 Amendment 36 for continuing coverage of one of Colorado's worst ideas. More on "Jews for Jesus"Re: the post on Jews for Jesus gracing us with their presence in town for the next two weeks, I myself was honored with the following, charming comment:
I do not know Scott's religion, his affilitation, his level of literacy or education, or even where he lives or works. But I assume that one person speaks for many, so here's my reply, posted in the comments, also emailed to him.
Scott appears incapable of reasoned discussion, so why do I bother to respond? Because Scott may represent, or influence the views of others. Because this is an important and delicate enough times in Jewish life that it is critical we not be misunderstood. Evangelical Christianity has indeed evolved into a friend of Israel, and a friend of Jews. Messianic "Jews" are neither. UPDATE: Here's a pretty good primer on the subject in today's Denver Post. Radio DaysFriday, we received the tape of the RMA'a appearance on Lea Live. Funny what the engineers do to your voice. I thought Jonathan was me, and I wasn't sure who I sounded like. Jim was quite distinctively Jim. He insisted right after the show that he had suffered brain lock, and I hope the tape disabuses him of that notion. So, now guys, we have an audition tape! Saturday, August 28, 2004 Coors and JobsThe Denver Post seems detemined to keep thos going, with its editorial this morning. The paper gives Coors a fair shake on his management of the company, but then adds this:
Maybe. But these small companies started out with only one client: Coors, and while the new management there made the thing grow, and deserves credit for that, they got a big boost at the start. This whole argument is a fine enough line that the Post ought to find something better to write about. Cross-Posted at Salazar v. Coors. Friday, August 27, 2004 "Jews" for JesusOver the next two weeks, starting Friday, Denver will have the unfortunate distinction of being the first in a series of cities targeted by a group known as "Jews for Jesus." This isn't anything like "Democrats for Bush." This is more like, oh, "Chemists for Alchemy," or maybe "Monarchs for Republicanism." It is a group of people who, masquerading as Jews, attempts to convert people to Christianity, under the guise of Judaism. They do this by appealing to some Jews' need to assimiliate as completely as possible, while still claiming credit for lox and bagels. Thursday, August 26, 2004 The Times on Niger - Again!Today's NY Times carries the following correction:
Not only did it take them 5 weeks to make the correction (the "editing lapse" presumes that no one noticed or cared to notice for that long), the best they can do is that the documents "appeared to substantiate claims." The documents clearly did substatiate those claim. Substantiating a claim is not the same thing as proving it. Everyone now agrees that Iraq did try to buy uranium from Niger. But the Times, having campaigned on this issue almost as hard as they did for Martha Burke at the Master's, can't possibly print what actually happened. LA Times PollThe new LA Times poll, for what it's worth, has Bush up 3 points nationally, 49-46. He still isn't breaking 50%, but it seems to confirm a fairly widespread trend over the least few weeks. Tour of GoodiesI love driving. Not in Denver, of course, where the traffic is approaching DC proportions, and the street lights are timed for maximum disruption. Out in the country, whether it's Barracks Road north of Charlottesville, or Route 50 west of DC (well, west of Fairfax, really), or pretty much anything outside of the Boulder-Denver-Colo. Springs axis of tail lights.
The package actually originated in Minneapolis (so now you know what large retailer I bought it from); there are actually a couple of entries that have dropped off the bottom. Personally, I suspect foul play by Mitch Berg. Salazar Goes Over the EdgeAt press time last night (hah!), Salazar seemingly had played the Summitville issue the right way - show outrage at an unfair attack, get your opponent to condemn it, have the newspapers print editorials defending you, and generally get the word out that the attack as isn't worth the ether it travels through.
Good for Coors. Salazar knows full well that the law concerning collaboration is unsettled. Were Coors to successfully call for the ads to be pulled, it would effectively make him responsible for all outside advertising, even though he can't possibly control it. Salazar is trying to manufacture an issue now where none really exists. And he's setting up his own sadder-but-wiser pose when the Sierra Club comes in with ads showing Clear Creek flowing with sludge and explaining that it's all those Coors trucks that cause the Brown Cloud. Cross-Posted at Salazar v. Coors. Wednesday, August 25, 2004 Salazar and Outside AdsI'm going to take issue with Guy and Hugh on this one. I don't think Salazar is particularly out of line, and I don't think either this ad or this issue is going to hurt him any. First, all of the papers, the Post, the Rocky, the Colorado Springs Gazette, and the Grand Junction Sentinal don't think that Salazar acted improperly. The abuses started before his watch, and he was partly responsible for putting and end to them. When the time for settlement came, he got a deal that more than paid for the damage, without having to go to trial. Secondly, Salazar has already run and won two statewide races where this issue was raised. These are fairly recent races, so it's not like the state's population has turned over in the interim. In fact, this points out one of the problems with the group sponsoring the ad: they're from out of state, and clearly don't have any clue about the history of either this issue or Colorado politics. Thirdly, Salazar himself has called, somewhat disingenuously, for outside groups not to advertise in state. Coors has joined him in this, even though the Rocky has editorialized in favor of outside groups. There's a limit as to how much Coors can say without being charged with collusion, though, and Salazar knows it. There's a fine line between being offended and grandstanding. In any event, Salazar isn't running for President, so it's going to be hard to judge him by Kerry's antics, no matter how much he's tried to run as a third member of the ticket. Finally, this group is not a 527, but a 501(c), and if the ad stops before Labor Day, they won't have to reveal their funding sources. That's ok, although the eponymous Karen Crummy prefers "secretly funded" to "anonymous," and it does make it easier to draw inappropriately sinister conclusions about the people behind the ad. In the end, this ad is almost likely to help, rather than hurt, Salazar. I've got nothing against third-party groups. My position on McCain-Feingold is pretty much that of the Wall Street Journal and National Review: it is an abomination in the eyes of the Constitition and the Founders. That said, if third parties are going to advertise, they need to do their homework. Cross-Posted at Salazar v. Coors. Carter to Venezuela: Drop DeadJust when things are looking bleak, just when all is Swift Boats and not-so-swift candidates, and you wonder if John Kerry is about to support My Pet Goat because, after all, he's the Navy mascot, along comes Jimmy Carter for comic relief. Never has a man's sanctimony and self-righteousness been so impervious to lances and mockery. And yet never has the fun gone out of trying. In a 1983 speech, Bob Dole remarked on a recent reunion of ex-Presidents, Dole saw Carter, Ford, and Nixon, "There they are. See-no-evil, hear-no-evil, and evil." Now that Ford is over 90 and out of the game, I guess Jimmah's decided to take up the slack. Down in Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, a Castro-protege with visions of a left-wing Latin America, has stolen a recall referendum he reluctantly agreed to. Mary Anastasia O'Grady has been all over this story. She describes in detail a huge turnout, preceded by opinion polls running 2-1 against Mr. Chavez. She describes an exit-poll, conducted by a reputable American firm, which showed the recall winning 60-40. She also describes exactly how the election could have been stolen: electronic voting machines, whose paper receipts were kept under lock-and-key by Chavez's troops. Carter Center representatives only looked at the tally sheets of a few machines, not at their paper receipts. This is roughly equivalent to conducting an audit by looking at reported financial statements. She also notes that some citizens, unconvinced by the results, were shot by government troops for protesting and demanding a real audit. The Journal allowed Jimmah an op-ed yesterday, to defend his suddenly in-question reputation. What he wrote was a huff-and-puff piece that described his long experience in monitoring election, the history of how just about everyone had done Chavez wrong, and how he (Carter) had fought tenaciously for the recall referendum to be held at all. He completely side-steps O'Grady's comments, essentially agreeing with the details of the audit, but asserting that close enough is good enough. He dismisses the exit poll as erroneous, and claims that its release was really the cause of all the trouble, since it led people to assume one result. Carter then goes on to ask everyone to abide by the result, go home, and assume that the next regularly-scheduled elections will be held, and will include a real opposition. People think that Bush's foreign policy is Wilsonian, but it's Carter who as apparently inherited Wilson's messiah-complex. His peroration takes credit for the referendum being held at all, while conveniently forgetting that it was Chavez who tried to invalidate petitions, and has now shot protestors. He encourages the people of Venezuela, who jumped through every legal hoop set up for them, in order to try to rid themselves of an incipient dictatorship, to go home an meekly accept the results in the interests of keeping the peace. What's more, he tells them to go home because he's Jimmy Carter and he knows what's best. He and Chavez apparently can't even agree on the terms of a more complete audit, but Carter has decided what the outcome will and should be. Funny, but I seem to recall him supporting the selective hand-recount in Florida. For our class on leadership in business school, we had to profile a leader, and analyze his style and accomplishments based on the model we had used in class. One of my classmates chose Carter, and stressed his commitment to "peace," above everything else. For some reason, he considered this a virtue. His position here is clearly of the same cloth - he encourages people to appease their own left-wing dictator-in-waiting, in the interests of peace. We should bear in mind that all this comes not at the expense of Dear Jimmah, but at the expense of the Venezuelan people, who are about to find themselves saddled with Castro-lite, but with oil. The best model for Venezuela may now be Turkey. A passable example might be Chile. What's sad is that it could have been us. UPDATE: Steven Hayward makes much the same point over at FrontPage, but with more detail on Carter's troublemaking during the Nicaraguan elections of 1990. It's nice to be in such good company. Yerushalayim Shel ZahavIsraeli windsurfer Gal Fridman won Israel's first gold medal ever at the Olympics today. As the AP points out, this will mean that, for the first time ever, "Hatikvah" will be played at an Olympic venue. It's just a doggone shame that Juan Antonion Samaranch, who fought bitterly against any rememberances of Munich at later Olympics, couldn't be there to see it. We'll see if NBC has the guts to show the medal ceremony, even though such a provocative and dangerous move could endanger the peace process. The win gives Israel one bronze and one gold medal this year. Now the games, aren't over yet, so I don't want to gloat, but I think, if you count up all the medals, by all the Arab countries, and Iran, you get 3 total, one of each color. Maybe they should stick to Nobel prizes. Oh, wait, never mind. Tuesday, August 24, 2004 Kerry on BoordaKate O'Beirne of National Review seems to be one of the few who remembers Admiral Jeremy "Mike" Boorda, the Chief of Naval Operations who took his own life in 1996. The first enlisted man to rise to that position, Admiral Boorda killed himself when Newsweek began to investigate the propriety of two "V" decorations, awarded for valor in combat, that he had worn on an off for several years. Admiral Boorda died believing he had mistakenly worn the award. Two years later, the Navy issued an opinion stating that he was not in error, that he did in fact deserve the "V"s. When Admiral Boorda killed himself, it was only natural for the two Boston papers to seek out the opinions of their own local, decorated Vietnam Navy veteran, Sen. John Kerry:
Ironically, it now appears that Kerry has been erroneously claiming a "V" of his own, associated with a Silver Star. The "V" appears never to have been applicable to the Silver Star, although it can be awarded in conjunction with a Bronze Star. Kerry clearly understands exactly what the stakes are here. I don't think anyone is expecting Kerry to follow Admiral Boorda's own, unfortunate example. We don't have a tradition of hari-kiri in this country, and Kerry himself felt it necessary to add that he didn't think it was worth Boorda's life. But we might think about holding Kerry to the standard he held Boorda to at the time. Let me be clear: so far, there has been no firm evidence that Kerry's decorations weren't awarded properly, or that they weren't earned. But he has clearly lied about his combat experience, exaggerated (at least) the conditions for his first Purple Heart, and at a minimum failed to correct an error on his DD 214. We may never know the actual conditions of the Bronze Star or the Purple Hearts. But there are those who clearly and honestly believe that he didn't earn them. I think it's a mistake to assume that the Swifties are only or even primarily, upset at Kerry's post-combat testimony about alleged war crimes. There's no question that that has ticked them off to no end. But respect is different from resentment. It's one thing to get clobbered by someone whom you respect. It's quite another to get blindsided by a former comrade who wound up being less - a lot less - than he was pretending to be. Just Asking QuestionsBack to the Fever Swamps. You might remember a few months ago, when the head of Diebold, based in Ohio, turned out to be a Republican committed to President Bush's re-election. Almost immediately, the Michael Moore wing of the Democratic party, the one that produces the delegates, began accusing him of plotting to steal the election by tampering with the programming of the electronic voting machines.
Companies can't give this kind of money to campaigns. They can't even give this kind of money to parties, directly. The company itself doesn't appear to have given anything to any candidate. If you think this is a fine distinction, consider that the Edwards campaign had to return thousands of dollars laundered through employees of an overly-enthusiastic law firm. And consider how you would feel hearing that "the State of Colorado" had donated tens of thousands of dollars to Ken Salazar's campaign. It hasn't of course, but its employees have.
There's also been nothing done to dissuade the perception that the moon is made of green cheese, that those little people actually live inside your television, and that dolphins are the descendents of advanced ancient civilizations.
In other words, there's nothing really the matter here, but people are distrustful enough of the process that they might think there is. The author goes on to make the following points:
Makes you wonder why they bothered to green-light this article in the first place. Monday, August 23, 2004 Um, About that Southern BorderThis story didn't get as much play as the initial 9/11 findings for some reason. The next time someone tells you that border security is a racist obsession, remind them of this.
RMA in the PapersLocal Denver Post columnist David Harsanyi has some very nice words for the RMA and its coverage of the Colorado Senate race:
David focuses on one of the more remarkable stories the RMA has to offer, that of Jim Cannon. Jim would deny this, of course, but nobody else can.
The rest of us couldn't agree more. Now, go read Jim's site. Looks Like a Job for Sandy BergerFrom today's Boston Globe:
Hat Tip: Command Post Sunday, August 22, 2004 Some PigI like going to the State Fair. Now, it's not the Minnesota State Fair, with their grand influx of conservative radio personalities, but it's still fun. Saturday, August 21, 2004 More Debates ScheduledWe have been made aware of two more debates on the schedule for this race. On October 12, Allied Jewish Federation will hold its Candidates' Forum, apparently to include the 1st District House candidates as well. Details to follow, but it should be a chance to highlight foreign affairs. Friday, August 20, 2004 Fire SuppressionFrom yesterday's Salon.com, a liberal news website:
Perhaps this explains Kerry's unwillingness to let The New Soldier be re-issued. There's no question that this is a veiled threat of a lawsuit. The campaign is already suing the Swift Vets themselves, has threatened lawsuits against TV stations carrying the first TV ad, and is clearly threatening both Regnery and, by implication, bookstores that carry the book. So far, as usual, the MSM is ignoring this ugly part of the Kerry "counterattack," although Irish and Scottish readers as well-informed about it. At this point, the only event Kerry has scheduled during the Republican Convention is a speech at the American Legion national convention. Suddenly, this doesn't look like such a shrewd move. Thursday, August 19, 2004 First Debate ScheduledAt least one debate between the two Senate candidates has been scheduled, for Saturday night, September 11, in Grand Junction, at the Two Rivers Convention Center. Salazar & Coors will debate from 7:00 to 7:55, following an undercard of Ken's brother John vs. (presumably) Greg Walcher, from 6:00 to 6:55. John Salazar & Walcher are facing each other for the 3rd District House seat, although there's still a little counting left to do on the Republican side there. We Were Wondering the Same ThingAll The News That Fits...From a John Kerry ad defending himself against questions about his war record: Well, when you post your medical records, and your After Action Reports, we will. You bet we will. Wednesday, August 18, 2004 Good Economic News That Nobody NoticedI know there's only one economic number that matters, and it comes out every Thursday, but this week has actually been pretty heavy with economic news, and while it doesn't show Chinese-like growth, there's a lot to be happy about. VFW Pictures You Won't Be SeeingThe AP caption reads:
NFIB Endorses CoorsThe National Federation of Independent Business, one of the country's major small-business organizations, has endorsed Pete Coors for Senate. Cross-Posted at Salazar v. Coors. Tuesday, August 17, 2004 Websites - Advantage SalazarWhen I was hanging out with these guys, about 20 years ago (dear God, where does the time go?), we used to rate probationary speeches on two criteria: style and content. (Sometimes, someone would throw "form" in there to confuse people, which, at 3:00 Saturday morning wasn't too hard to do. Usually, at that point, we'd head down to the Corner for breakfast.) Do well enough, or speak late enough that people had stopped caring, usually about the time the keg ran out, and you passed. Cross-Posted at Salazar v. Coors. Amendment 36 - How It Will (or Won't) WorkIt turns out that those pushing electoral deform here in Colorado have got a precise formula for how their system will work. The website for Make Your Vote Count (For Less) has the full text of the proposed Amendment. I'm here to translate it into English.
Let's just say that Sen. Tupa, while a perfectly nice guy, doesn't come across as the brightest bulb in the chandelier. He's proposed previous electoral deform, but has come out enthusiastically for this Amendment, claiming that it's even better than what he proposed. It's a shame he doesn't know what's in it. He couldn't answer any of my questions, couldn't answer any of the specific scenarios I gave him, and referred me to the website for the text. The text itself isn't linked to from the front page, although it's not hidden, and he couldn't direct me to it. ExerciseI took one look at that picture with Hugh, and saw that I was the only one who looked like a NASCAR dad (not that there's anything wrong with that). Funny, because most NASCAR races are held on Saturday, so I'm also the only one in the picture who couldn't go to or watch the races. John Kerry on TerrorismA quote, from August 1, 1996 hearings of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
Some things never change. Even then, the emphasis on allies. And then as now, he understood Iraq to be a state sponsor of terror, oh, wait, never mind. Monday, August 16, 2004 Amendment 36With the Secretary of State's certification of signatures, Proposition 99 has burst forth from its cocoon to become the revolting moth known as Amendment 36. Yesterday's Ft. Collins Coloradoan presents the themes of this campaign.
Well, I suppose a stopped clock is right twice a day. Straayer's last comments don't quite redeem his previous idiocy. His comments on what states see interest are just factually incorrect. He's so far off base, I could pick him off first, and I'm right-handed with a lousy pickoff move. First, we do seem to be a swing state, enough that candidates are spending money here. Secondly, of the four states he mentions, only one is seeing any interest. In a close election, it doesn't matter how big you are if it's not close, and it doesn't matter how small you are if it is close.
Those are the two arguments, one specious, because it's patently untrue, and the other a weird value-judgment about what's "fair." Everybody's preference is honored: some people win, and some people lose. According to this logic we could dispense not only with executives, but with legislatures, and just run the state or the country by plebiscite. Sunday, August 15, 2004 Book Review - The Outlaw SeaWe think of the ocean as being a lot like the land, just wetter. We can identify ships. They travel in well-established shipping lanes according to well-established timetables. The ships themselves are in good shape, subject to regular port inspections. They fly the flags of recognized countries, which are responsible for their registration, and they have home ports they come back to every so often. We think of ships as big, ocean-going trucks, maybe airplanes, that operate in a well-ordered system. Salazar and the Hispanic VotePete Coors was successful in the primary in part because his GOTV efforts targeted general election voters, in addition to traditional primary voters. This is why he won by the margin he did, and it's also why the Republican turnout was so high. It explains why the polls had it dead even - they polled only traditional primary voters.
In fact, Salazar has been slowly raising the Hispanic profile in his biography, and laying the groundwork for this, for at least 6 years. A Lexis-Nexis search turned up only 2 relevant articles in the 6 months prior to his 1998 Attorney General victory. According to the October 26, 1998 Rocky,
Salazar was counting on his Hispanic background, but wasn't yet willing to make a public issue of it. In fact, he ran ahead of Gail Schoettler, whom Bill Owens narrowly defeated for Governor that year. Fred Brown discussed the matter post-election (Nov. 23) for the Post:
Note the comment about Dottie Lamm. It's important, because four years later, Amendment 31 was on the ballot. Amendment 31 would have essentially ridded Colorado of bilingual education. Salazar took a very public stand against the measure:
A Lexis-Nexis search for 2002 reveals about 5 relevant stories before the election, specifically mentioning Salazar and the Hispanic vote. In a major story on the Hispanic vote (Rocky, August 27, 2002), Salazar is the only living politician mentioned by name, although both parties' efforts are highlighted. Other stories mention his association with Hispanic voter registration drives. This year, he's been even more outspoken on the issue, and apparently believes that it's his ace in the hole. He also believes that, having run and won elections by appealing primarily to white voters, he can now appeal to Hispanics without threatening that success. Cross-Posted at Salazar v. Coors. Friday, August 13, 2004 Second-Tier Media, Still No Mainstream MediaIt would appear that persistence sometimes pays off. A little search indicates that Christmas in Cambodia is starting to work its way through the second-tier newspapers, and some of the english-language foreign press as well. The bad news is that, aside from the Daily Telegraph, it's all editorial pages and syndicated columns. And the mainstream media still doesn't think it's a story. Still, the Ft. Wayne News Sentinel has an editorial strongly defending the relevance of the story. One of the San Francisco Examiner's conservative columnists, Kathleen Antrim, is onto it. Investor's Business Daily, not exactly a reliable Republican mouthpiece, is also demanding answers, if not yet asking questions. The problem is, these are, if anything, a little lower down on the food chain than the New York Post, Daily News, and even the Washington Times. The editorial writers are in a position to ask for medical records and diaries, but not in a position to pry open the doors with investigative journalism. Editorial boards don't dictate either coverage or slant, and they shouldn't. But an editor can assign a couple of reporters to a story, and have them interview some of the swiftvets involved. They can call around the Pentagon, and try to obtain some of those records. Shocked? Well that's what reporters do. When they actually want to cover a story, that is. Cross-Posted at Oh, That Liberal Media. Blackout Extends to DenverSearching for Cambodia in today's Post and Rocky turns up a blank. The Rocky ran a series a few months back on some Cambodians living the US, who actually were tormented by the Khmer Rouge, but none of them mentioned having seen John Kerry. Mike Littwin, who defended Kerry and wondered why vets in Virginia Beach weren't offended by Bush's National Guard service, has nary a word on the subject. In the other paper, Jim Spencer, who apparently spent hours trying to track down the future President's pay stubs, has concluded that no such investigation in necessary in Kerry's case. Littwin's defense contained this weirdly prescient description: "He led a swift boat up the river to where you could literally smell napalm in the morning." Funny, Kerry was probably thinking the same thing. But Spencer is by far the worse offender. I've exchanged emails with Littwin, and he's always taken my criticisms seriously and responded thoughtfully. I don't expect it to have any perceptible effect on his writing, but you never know. In the week since the story has been out there, Spencer hasn't even bothered to "ask the questions." Hasn't even acknowledged that such questions exist, or might be valid, never mind taking all those years of journalistic experience and investigating them. Cross-Posted at Oh, That Liberal Media. Thursday, August 12, 2004 Salazar as Attorney GeneralProbably Ken Salazar's worst moment as Attoney General came when he joined a lawsuit against the state, in order to preserve a Democratic redistricting plan. I spent a lot of pixels on this at the time, including some analysis of why the State Supreme Court's ruling was wrong. (It's near the bottom. Go to the end and scroll up a little.) Salazar's reasoning was of the sort that only a partisan court could love. But it raises the larger question of his willingness to run his office in a non-partisan fashion. He's currently investigating alleged voter registration fraud in the upcoming election, in which he's a candidate. And he also will still be Attorney General after November 2, should the execrable Amendment 99 be passed into law. Some enterprising reporter should ask him about what he would do in that last case. Cross-Posted at Salazar v. Coors. Republicans Campaign - Kerry Shocked
Not exactly. But close:
Accusing the other side of playing "racial politics" after this is beyond words. Nobody belives this, least of all the Democrats. It does, however, point out the only winning strategy that Kerry has - stop the Republicans from talking altogether. Refer to 9/11? Why, you're politicizing the most tragic event of our era. Vietnam? He's a war hero, and who are you to question that? His Senate record? Um, what Senate record? No, that's the past, and we want to talk about the future. Break the monopoly on black radio advertising? You're playing "racial politics." All of this is part of shaping the debate, of course, and you can't blame them for trying. But when you're only answer to any issue you don't like, or thought you had sewn up, is to accuse the other side of playing politics, it's possible you're in the wrong game. There's another, more specific aspect to this, too. The Democrats probably wouldn't have 170 House seats or 45 Senate seats with the 90%+ black support they've had over the years. It's why John Kerry gave that abomination of a human being a prime-time speaking slot, and then praised him so fulsomely afterwards for "making sense" during the debates. It's why George Bush's speech to the Urban League and stiffing of the NAACP infuriated them so, and led directly to that speech. It's why that radio advertising, where Democrats had had the field themselves, has them squealing like stuck pigs. It's also why black conservatives like Ward Connerly find themselves the targets of character assassination, for being "Uncle Toms" or "not black enough." It's why Dylan Glenn deserves your support. It's why these people matter. Because the Democratic party needs these votes. It can't hope to win any national election, or most statewide elections, without them. Other Alliance PostsWelcome, Powerline readers. (Sounds like, "Welcome, Soopercard Customer.") My apologies to James Thurber for this. Over at the other Alliance blogs, Kestrel has an update on the Venezuelan recall effort. This one may be even more important to win than Collyfornia. Chavez is a Castro protege, apparently begin supported by Cuban troops on the ground (apparently Castro is reliving the Vietnam era, too, as in Angola), and Venezuela is one of the few sourcs of oil not controlled or threatened by hostile Muslims or power-seeking Russians. He's all over this story. Jared is looking at racism at the Aurora Mall. Once it was the place to be, now, it's the place to stay away from. Especially with a segment-killer-laden faux Main Street right across Alameda. My preferred solution. And Jonathan has some insights about Medicare fraud here in Colorado. Hint: it speaks Spanish. McGreeveyPersonally, I don't care if the guy's gay. He's the target of a lawsuit alleging sexual harassment; he may have appointed the guy suing him to a position of extreme importance, in order to keep him quiet. That's why he is resigning. From a religious viewpoint, he hasn't said anything about divorcing his wife and moving to Massachussetts for convenience's sake, unlike certain recently-promoted Episcopalian bishops. So his actions appear honorable. What's not honorable is hanging onto the office for three months, in order to avoid a special election that might see a boost in Republican turnout for Bret Schundler. New Jersey is currently a 9-point lead for Kerry, but that could change at the polls if Republicans see a chance to retake the statehouse. If the allegations and lawsuit are serious enough for McGreevey to resign in 90 days, they're serious enough for him to resign now. Even when they're ahead, and it's not close, they cheat. The Secret Life of John Kerry"Hell of a way to spend Christmas Eve, huh?" said the CIA man, gazing into the darkness beyond the rail of the swift boat. The lieutenant seemed unconcerned. "Put that cigarette out," he said. "You want every Khmer Rouge between here and the Mekong Delta shooting at us?" The CIA man pursed his lips, and tossed the smoke into the river. "We're almost there," said Lieutenant Kerry. "Well, we did get sidetracked a bit," said the CIA man. "I don't get sidetracked," replied the lieutenant, testily, thumbing towards the crewman on his left. "That son of a bitch knocked me off course." The CIA man studied the shoreline. The boat engine softly murmured, "pocketa-pocketa-pocketa." "Here it is," as the boat pulled up to the shore. "Hold this for me," the CIA man said, handing the lieutenant his hat as he pulled out a map. Suddenly, a rice bin burst into flames nearby. "Shove it!" yelled the lieutenant, as both the crew and the CIA man looked confused. "Shove off! Shove Off!", and the boat turned down river. A few miles later, Lieutenant Kerry fingered the hat. "Sure was lucky," he thought to himself. "I can use this when it starts to get a little chilly, a little windy...." "What did you say it was?" asked Mrs. Kerry. "It's Wendy's Chili, ma'am," repeated the clerk. Kerry's wife shot him a look worse than any VC. "Don't worry, dear," he sighed. "Take a few bites. Dinner's waiting on the bus." Inspired by Powerline, the source of this powersurge in traffic. Wednesday, August 11, 2004 Operations MismanagementI've been in business school now for just over 2 years, and should be finishing up this year. I'm getting a dual, MBA and MS Finance degress, in preparation for a career change. Terror in the Skies - More CorroborationI'm sure that Annie Jacobsen would like to get back to writing about mutual funds and retirement planning. She's good at it. Unfortunately for her, she's also good at writing about Flight 327, and staying on top of the story. Before she's done learning about federal bureaucracy, I'll bet she wishes she were only covering the finer points of Eliot Spitzer's plan to remake the world through litigation.
Now, we've heard how the men were just washing up for prayers. But in the toilet? Those sinks are small, but not that small. Ingles sin BarrerasThe ad was clever. A gloved hand picks a front door lock from the outside, while a dog and cat watch from the inside. The door opens, the dog lies there on his rug in front of the fireplace. Suddenly, the cat lets out barking and snarling like a dog. The hand retreats, the door closes. An upstairs light flicks on, and you think someone's going to come downstairs and pat the dog on the head. Suddenly, one of those a-little-too-enthusiastic voice-overs that you get on Spanish-language TV: "Ingles sin Barreras," with an impressive array of booklets, tapes, and CDs. See? You too can learn to bark like an American! I've been reading Jorge Ramos's The Latino Wave, and it's piqued my interests in Hispanics, and the social and political role they'll play in American society. I'm still forming an opinion about the book, but ads like these are heartening and encouraging, even in the face of groups like La Raza. The Times Does JobsThis correction from today's New York Times:
Gee, you think that makes a difference? The idea that roughly 20% of the American economy generated no new jobs just slipped by that editor. Salazar v. Coors BlogWelcome Daschle v. Thune Readers! The RMA, taking the lead from inside the walls of South Dakota, has created Salazar v. Coors, a group blog devoted to the Senate race here. While we'll likely be cross-posting to our own sites, Salazar v. Coors will provide a central repository for our commentary on the race. Tuesday, August 10, 2004 It's Coors v. Salazar!Pete Coors has defeated Bob Schaffer in a hard-fought Senate primary that was, in the final analysis, not all that close. At the same time, Ken Salazar won the expected victory over Mike Miles for the Democrats. It also appears that Coors, although in a closer race, will win with more actual votes that Salazar. Coors's victory, and the size of the participation suggests that he had a couple of things working for him. First, money did make a difference, probably reaching more voters and attracting some unaffiliateds to vote in the primary. Secondly, it's possible that Bill Armstrong's strong-arm tactics may have turned some people off to Schaffer. We could argue whether that's fair to a Schaffer campaign that tried to distance itself from those ads, but they may have backfired, all the same, in the absence of a third candidate to turn to. I was actually at Coors's campaign party for the results, and I came away with a few impressions. Coors himself is getting better as a speaker. He's not smooth, but he's increasingly comfortable, a point made by Senator Campbell. He drew a few laughs, stated the main themes of the campaign, thanked Senator Campbell for retiring, and was gracious to Bob Schaffer. (A lot will probably depends on how Schaffer conducts himself both in his concession speech, and in the days ahead.) At the same time, Coors was careful to contrast Republican and Democratic philosophies as much as personalities. I didn't hear Salazar's victory speech, but on KOA while I was driving home, I did hear him bring up a laundry list of issues without mentioning parties. If it's Coors's intent to nationalize the race, that's a good sign. The national importance of the race was underscored by the presence of Senator George Allen of the Commonwealth of Virginia. Sen. Allen also happens to head the NRSC. During his remarks, I was half-expecting him to say, "The Future is Now," but he didn't. For some reason he also didn't think it was funny when I told him I was relieved that he hadn't. He interpreted it to mean that I thought it would put off Broncos fans. I just didn't want him trading away draft picks. I was a little disappointed that the War on Islamicism didn't show up more obviously in either Campbell's or Owens's comments. But Coors made a point of emphasizing the sacrifices of the troops, and the lifelong scars some will bear, in defense of elections like the one just held. Finally, and on a topic we'll see much more of, a brief anecdote. In the middle of the crowd, well before meaningful results had come in. I stood right next to a local Univision reporter doing her establishment stand-up, the little 5-second clip that will tell the viewers where she is. I had intended to ask her some questions about which campaigns had made themselves more available, when she and her cameraman were whisked away, upstairs, presumably to interview the candidate himself. In an election where the Hispanic vote will be important, access and dollars will be key, since Coors doesn't really speak Spanish all that well. This was an excellent sign. Cross-Posted at Salazar v. Coors Primary DaySince I was invited, I may as well go to the Coors Primary Day Party this evening at - where else? - Coors Field. Clay points out that if you're trying to distance yourself from your eponymous company, there might be better venues for your campaign party. I say, why not play up the home field advantage? Reports from there, or shortly afterwards. Radio Guest ShotThe RMA made its radio debut today, and I was lucky enough to be behind the mike along with Jonathan and Jim for the guest shot on LeaLive! up in Greeley. Now, Greeley is in northern Colorado, and the signal covers mostly cow and gas country. When the breeze is from the east, you're reminded of that real fast. But Lea was about as gracious a hostess as you could possibly want, and the staff was friendly and very accomodating. We sat out in the Green Room, really a waiting room with a closed-circuit TV feed of the studio, while Lea interviewed a staffer for Senator Allard. Now, being a guest is easy. You sit in the studio, the host asks you some questions, and you answer them. I think listening to good hosts gives you a sense of how much a leap it is across the desk. Lea actually asked us the first question, "How on God's green earth did I end up interview you three for 15 minutes, and why shouldn't I be praying that the syndication people aren't listening?" off the air. Between the dry run and air-time, I managed to forget half of the answer. In fact, the only disappointment was that so much time was spent discussing the ethos of blogging, establishing that we weren't in the pay of any Party or parties, telling people what on earth a blog is, and generally explaining that we do this for fun, not profit. Certainly she must have been more tempted to ask more substantive questions, but fearful that her audience wouldn't have any idea who we were or why they should care. Hopefully, a return appearance will feature more meat, less silverware, the table having been set and the guests properly introduced. If you happened to hear the show, please email her and let her know. Monday, August 09, 2004 The AP As a Hockey RefereeThe AP, having completely ignored the actual charges of the Swift Boat Veterans, and especially the Cambodian charge has finally produced a report detailing the Democratic rebuttal. The Kerry campaign, faced with about 437 different Cambodian stories, ranging from creative geography to the Khmer Rouge anticipating their cue by about 2 years, has helpfully provided no factual information whatsoever. The "Bush Truth Squad," led by Bob Graham, fell back on their existing talking point: "They're calling us unpatriotic, just like they did with Max Cleland." Which the AP repeated without question. Kerry Supporters Hack Barnes & NobleHat Tip: Human Events Arab News - Heirs to Hanoi Jane, Tokyo Rose, and Lord Haw HawTake a look at this editorial from today's Arab News, on the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth ad. The Arab News is published in both English and Arabic, and its primary audience is Arab.
The only paragraph that shows even the faintest understanding of America is the last one, which is certainly true. But the notion that questioning Kerry's Vietnam service somehow reflects on our soldiers today is bizarre. It can only be intended to bolster Kerry, undermine troop morale, and reinforce the morale of those who wish us ill. Kerry's PlanIn today's USA Today, Senator Kerry outlines his "plan" for Iraq. It involves no more detail, and says little more than he's said elsewhere. Apparently, this is supposed to satisfy critics who say he's taken "Secret Plan" lessons from 1968. The last paragraph is worth special attention:
Yes, by all means, let's get the French to help out with the new Iraqi Constitution. After all, they've got so much practice at writing them. Who was is who said that their local library didn't have a copy of the current French Constitution because they didn't take periodicals? And we can certainly count on them to protect Iraqi minorities, as long as they're not Jewish or Christian. As for a regional conference, getting Iran, Syria, and Saudia Arabia to be guarantors of Iraq's borders sounds more than a little like making Germany a guarantor of Belgian neutrality. Let's play along with Kerry's notion that Iraq is Vietnam redux. Doesn't Iran have something in common with North Vietnam? Doesn't Syria begin to look a little like Laos? And doesn't John Kerry begin to look a lot like...John Kerry? Crossover Voting?Colorado requires that you be affiliated with a party to vote in that party's primaries, which has left a lot of unaffiliated voters with the impression that they're left out of tomorrow's balloting. Fortunately for them, Colorado's rules about changing that affiliation are about as malleable as New York or Illinois residency requirements for Senate candidacies. You can show up at the polls, and declare your desire to switch party affiliations.
Interestingly, the other two sources quoted are Douglas County Clerk Carole Murray, a Republican, and Jon Caldera, head of the Republican-leaning Independence Institute. Schaffer conspiracy theorists have suspected that the Rocky has been backing Coors, and what better way to put him over the top than to appeal to those unaffiliateds that Coors is supposedly better at attracting. Ah, yes, it's all coming together, now...
The idea of Republicans switching over to vote for the most leftist candidate available strikes me as implausible on any grounds other than gamesmanship. But Salazar isn't at all a repugnant figure like McKinney. There's certainly been no organized move to cause Salazar grief in the Democratic primary, and the close Republican primary will keep almost all Republicans voting at home tomorrow. So don't look for a Miles upset to come from across the aisle. In fact, don't look for a Miles upset at all. Coors Draws Liberal IreIf Pete Coors had been hoping to follow Nixon's old formula, and run to the right for the nomination, and then back to the center for the election, the left-wing interest groups are going to do their best to prevent that. Coors's announcement last week that the company will no longer pay for abortions has made it into a general NARAL press release attacking pretty much every Republican senatorial candidate they can find.
I don't think this was every part of Coors's strategy. I think he hopes his personality and style are less off-putting than Schaffer's, but I don't think he ever really planned to campaign as a moderate. I also think he planned to use his connections with the gay and Latino communities to soften their traditional opposition to All Things Republican, but it's become clear over time that that won't happen, either. Sunday, August 08, 2004 CampingOn the spur of the moment, I decided to go camping for the weekend.
Actually, Saturday night might not have been so bad, except for the Group Campground about 3/4 of a mile down the road. Starting at about 10:00, some group started practicing their Sioux drum beats and war chants. Sounded as though they were ready to come down the road and start enforcing their treaty claims right then and there. Blogs vs. the APHere's the pre-primary AP summary of the Colorado Senate race. It's what most papers will pick up and run, and therefore, it's what most of the country will see. Go ahead and read it. When you're done, it should be obvious why people come here, and go here, here, and here for their coverage of the race. Joe Biden - Secretary of State?George Will suggests in his column that Joe Biden might be called on to be Secretary of State in a Kerry Administration. Will suggests that Biden would prove to be a stabilizing influence in an administraion bereft of serious foreign policy experience. His being chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee is scary enough. But maybe Will didn't hear the BBC interview from the floor of the Democratic Convention where Biden called the interviewer "Bucko," while testily reminding whatever portion of Europe was listening that its oil dependency made it even more vulnerable to terror than we are. After that charming introduction, guaranteed to win friends and influence continentals, Biden went on to explain that the US needed to take a more multilateral approach, since that was the only way we could train Iraqis to take over and get our troops home. This days after France obstructed just such a move. Joe Biden, diplomat. Friday, August 06, 2004 Kerry, Reid, Daschle, Boxer, all Can't ThinkClay has this tidbit from CNN's Larry King interview with John Kerry:
Red State points out that plane #2 hit at 9:03, and the Pentagon was hit at 9:43. Back into the FireLast night, for the last LA-Denver flight of the evening, they boarded the plane on time. Of course, the flight crew was delayed, so they had to grab another one. And the pilots were late, so they started asking for volunteers. Naturally, they announced all of this after we had been sitting in a plane without air conditioning for 30 minutes. In LA. In August.
I'm not sure what company runs Coors's health insurance, but it's not unusual to have to call to find out if a specific procedure is covered, and under what circumstances, so it's entirely possible that a corporate chairman might not know this. Remember, the decisions you make as a company are different from those you make as a politician, no matter what Buie says in class. Thursday, August 05, 2004 Living the Internet LifestyleNo real blogging today. I'm out here in Pasadena for a contract interview, and the interview ended at about 12:30. Hungry. Breakfast was one of those little biscottis at Coffee Bean, and lunch, so far, won't materialize. So I need to drive to the Kosher District. Now, I know where the Kosher District is. It's at the intersection of W. Pico Robertson. Only I'm in Pasadena, which is practically on the other side of the planet, and have no real sense of LA driving geography. Sure, Pico-Robbie is southwest of here. So is San Diego, and I've got an 8:15 flight home. And I'm hungry. Plus, LA has fabulous kosher restaurants that serve things other than cut-rate Mexican and pizza. Normally, I'm organized enough when I travel that I've got all this sorted out, but this time, no time. I'm doing all this on the fly. Ten, even five years ago, this would have been annoying beyond belief. Find a place with a phone book. Make change. Make a call to AAA to find out where their local office is. Get directions. Go there and get the map. Ask to use their Yellow Pages, look for "kosher" under "restaurant," call one of them in the area, get their address, and then ask the AAA guys for directions. It's hot, I'm hungry and thirsty and have just spent 3 1/2 hours answering questions about databases and debugging code. I might have been able to stay this side of yelling at the AAA guy who doesn't know the directions. Ah, but we live in the Internet age. So I plop down, open the wifi, go here to find a restaurant, here to get directions, and I'm on my way. Calling the restaurant on the cell phone to see if they're open seems so passe. And being the optimistic, impatient American that I am, I'm wondering why I can't plug the laptop into my car and have it drive me there. Wednesday, August 04, 2004 Pausing...
...long enough to register outrage at this.
Cheating If It's Not Close - Turn the Tables?Peter Blake posits that if the presidential vote in Colorado goes Democratic, but Proposition 99 passes, that both parties will switch sides, with the Republicans now backing the proposal that might help put Bush over the top. Cheating If It's Not Close - Who is Rick Ridder?It's no secret. Rick Ridder is a well-known Democratic political operative, who operates a campaign consulting firm here in Denver, Ridder-Braden, serving Democratic campaigns and liberal causes. He was Howard Dean's first campaign manager. Ridder spoke at the Democratic Gain campaign training sessions in this year's convention in Boston, notably on, "Major Consequences: How Ballot Measures will impact Battleground States in the 2004 Election." He is a past president of the International Association of Political Consultants, and has written pamphlets for the UK's Liberal Democrats (the only party to oppose war in Iraq) and helped Sweden's Social Democrats develop local polling techniques. For the record, attorney Mark Grueskin, who's also working with Make You Vote Count (Less), is a fairly high-powered corporate attorney, who has represented tobacco companies, Fox Channel 31, and the state's casino association. For fun, though, he represents anti-gun group SAFE Colorado, the liberal Bighorn Center, the City of Denver in opposing the Republican redistricting plan, and the 2002 Feeley campaign when that election went to the courts. He also helped draft both Colorado's and Oregon's medical marijuana bills. There's nothing inherently sinister about any of this. People work for the team they're on. They just shouldn't pretend that they don't. The Daily MatsunakaBen has been plugging the 2nd & 3rd District House races. An interesting tidbit from other research. Stan Matsunaka sent a letter of thanks to the Daily Kos, last seen gloating over the deaths of American contractors. Stan, that's not a very attractive woman you're in bed with. Rocky Mountain Alliance RadioThe Rocky Mountain Alliance has landed a guest shot on (very) local radio, a Greeley-based radio show with Lea Faulkner, on 1310 KFKA, Radio Kafka. Ok, Josef K- isn't spinnin' the discs on Saturday night, but according to reliable sources, KFKA is the oldest radio station west of the Mississippi (KDKA out of Pittsburgh is the oldest in the country. For a history of radio call signs and the K-W system, write Lileks.) We'll be appearing next Tuesday, Primary Day, August 10, to talk mostly about the hot Senate race, but also a little about blogging in general, and its effect on the political scene. I'll have the honor of appearing, and backing up Jonathan and Jim. It's not quite Northern Alliance Radio, but it's a start. Ways to Vote in Denver When You're Dead...It's not quite a door being taped open, but something's fishy:
Secretary of State is an elected position, and Mrs. Davidson is a Republican. But Attorney General Salazar is trying to get himself elected to the Senate. I can think off hand of a list of about a dozen questions that need to be answered, preferably in the next week. Watch this space. Tuesday, August 03, 2004 Debt Differences EmergeMuch has been made of the notion that Bob Schaffer and Pete Coors different primarily in personality and temperment. But in dueling thumbnail sketches in today's Boulder Colorado Daily, some differences emerge on the question of the national debt and the federal deficit.
And here's Schaffer:
Schaffer clearly comes across as a deficit hawk, where Coors, while fiscally conservative, understands that as the national economy grows, so will its debt. The question is, does the deficit grow faster than the economy, and does the debt grow as a fraction of the economy? Both these positions are defensible, although there is some suspicion that our recession was amplified by the attempt to pay down debt. (Nobody really believes that deficits by themselves will drive up interest rates, anymore.) Coors's problem is that while he may be right, nobody believes him. That is, Colorado is a fiscally conservative state, in the true sense of the word, meaning low spending and low taxes. That Salazar has been calling himself a fiscal conservative when all he wants to do is raise taxes to cover the deficit just shows the power of the idea here. It's the state of TABOR and the Gallagher Amendment, even if it's also the state of Amendment 23. Coors's position may be correct economically, but it's also going to take a lot of voter education to bring people around. Monday, August 02, 2004 The Post-Convention PotholeAnyone who's lived through more than a couple of winters in DC knows about potholes. Water seeps into the asphalt, freezes, and then something like a car tire hits the weak spot and creates a hole. That seems to be an apt comparison with what's hit the Kerry campaign over the last few days. The CNN/USA Today poll shows a 5-pt. bounce for the President, and for the first time I can remember, shows one ticket over 50%. That last is very important, if it holds. I've also been watching the Tradesports contract on the President's re-election, and the Iowa Electionic Market charts on both vote share and Winner-Take-All. The Tradesports contract had actually fallen below 50%, but is now back up over 53%. The vote share numbers had merged, but the President is seeing a little separation again, and the Kerry numbers in the winner-take-all contract are now back to pre-convention levels. That last contract is possibly the most important. It was at this point in 1992 that Bill Clinton overtook George H.W. Bush in the market, a point I have seen made nowhere else. Kerry briefly moved ahead of the President, but has failed to hold onto the gains. Any technical analyst looking at these numbers would conclude that both campaigns are still moving sideways, with the President still slightly ahead. This was a critical week for Senator Kerry, and he failed to capitalize on it. Naturally, these markets aren't perfect by any stretch. They're collective predictions, nothing more. But they've been good in the past. The Parties and IsraelI'm old enough to remember when the Republicans were the party of pan-Arab pragmatism, and the Democrats were the party of Israel. That started to change under Carter, but it took Reagan to give the impulse real momentum. Reagan understood two things: that Israel was a friendly democracy, and that the Arab countries were not going to be any less pro-Soviet no matter what we did with Israel. In other words, there was neither tactical nor strategic advantage to trying to straddle. George H. W. Bush , and his team of Baker and Scowcroft set back this shift about 20 years. Bill Clinton was able to look pro-Israel while undermining the only non-Olso government the Israelis elected under Netanyahu. Now, under George W. Bush, the Republican Party is firmly pro-Israel. Sadly, a gap has opened up as the Democrats move to the left on this, as well. Don't believe me? Our local representative here, Diana DeGette, voted against HR 713, condemning the ICJ's ruling against Israel's Security Fence. Of the 196 Democrats voting, fully 25% voted against or voted "present." Only 8 Republicans did so. Of those 4 voting against, one was Darrell Issa, an Arab American, and the other was Ron Paul, everyone's favorite isolationist. Thanks to Project Vote-Smart, we can also look at year-by-year issue and group ratings for office-holders. And do a little statistical analysis. Vote-Smart, among other things, tracks ratings by issue watchdog groups. There's one group, called the Jews for Peace in Palestine and Israel (note the order). The group seems to be composed of Jews who demonstrate their concern for their fellow Jews by supporting policies that will lead to their deaths by the millions. The also track Congressional votes, and produce +/- ratings for each representative. While the parties in the Senate are pretty close, the difference in the House is striking: the Republicans average a -1.48 rating, while the Democrats average -0.85. The Democrats also have a much greater Standard Deviation, 1.99, meaning that about 2/3 of Democrats fall between -2.85 and +1.15. The Republicans' S.D. is about 1.19. Remember, in this case, a negative score is the correct one to have. Interestingly, the Denise Majette, whose impending political suicide is going to give Cynthia "Bush Knew" McKinney her seat back in Georgia, scores a -2. Even though she's been a solid liberal vote, she's returned sanity to her district on one issue, however temporarily. The Republicans are not only more pro-Israel, but also significantly more unified on that fact, at least in the House. Does this mean anything? Well, the fact that the average House Democrats is statistically neutral between Israel and her enemies ought to be of some concern. On the other hand, the Senate tends to have a much stronger say in foreign policy issues, and the split hasn't manifested itself there - yet. Manufacturing Stays HotJust about no bad news into this month's report from the Institute for Supply Management. The only index less than 50 is manufacturers' inventories, at 49.9, and anything over 42.3 means growth. The overall index stands at 62, over 60 again. Employment is at 57.3, growing, albeit a little more slowly than last month. More good news is that customers' inventories are still very low, an index of 37.5, and price pressure, while still strong at 77.0, continues to drift downwards as commodities producers increase production in a tight market. Overall, the ISM judges, both the economy and the manufacturing sector picked up steam in July. Welcome Powerline Readers...from the Northern Alliance out to the Rocky Mountain Alliance. Probably the most interesting current post is here, for those of you from out of state. And check out the rest of the Alliance (links to the right) while you're here. Early Voting in DenverWhen is absentee voting not absentee voting? When you load up the Cap'n Crunch, the sardines with the Nicholas II look-alike on the can, and the kiwi fruit. You file into the self check-out line, which you now use because it's faster. Faster that is, when four people who are old enough to have voted for Social Security are trying to scan items, or their store card, or their credit card, or they've put an item down into the bag, only it's a magazine and doesn't weigh enough to register. So they jam it down into the bag, and the machine chides that there's now an "unexpected item" in the bag. So now they're waiting for the clerk, who's toxic enough that these machines were intended to prevent public contact with him, to come by and press a button that will let them scan the next magazine. And while you're waiting in this no-wait line, you see...a voting machine! Yes, Denver has thoughtfully once again provided early voting for those people who can't clear time out of their schedules months, or even years in advance. Here are the locations: Days: Monday Aug. 2, 2004 through Friday Aug. 6, 2004 If you're a Republican or an independent, please vote for Bob Schaffer or Pete Coors. If you're a Democrat, please please please vote for Mike Miles. The AP Catches UpThe AP his finally gotten around to reporting on Annie Jacobsen and Flight 327. The story's only been out there for, what, three weeks? But now it's been mainstreamed. Before, Mrs. Jacobsen, the folks who read National Review Online, and the mostly red-pink part of the blogosphere had even heard of her or her story. Now, you can count on people of all political persuasions cocking their heads and saying, "yeah, wasn't she the alarmist on that flight with Wayne Newton." As a side note, articles on Mr. Mehana & his traveling whack-a-mole band (just when one sits down, two pop up) now routinely and without quotes refer to him as the "Syrian Wayne Newton." I can't find any reference to him as that, prior to Mr. Taylor's NRO article. Three weeks is now the Half Life of Irony. Once the story made the New York Times as the subject of derision, and the Times turned it from a lesson in national security intto one of cultural paranoia, the wire service probably figured it had to write something. But as noted here before, Mr. Taylor did all the actual legwork in findout who these guys were. The Times couldn't be bothered to credit him, while happily stealing his line about Wayne Newton. Now the wire service just follows suit. Sunday, August 01, 2004 Cheating if it Isn't Close - And it Isn't Your StateMore on that ballot initiative. It turns out that it's funded by an organization called "The People's Choice for President," which sounds like a really bad reality TV series, but just has the potential to spread some really bad reality. It's actually based in San Francisco, and largely funded by Jorge Klor de Alva, former president of the University of Phoenix, and now President of the Brazilian University, Faculdade Pitagoras. He's on the board of the Apollo Institute, a company that creates and runs for-profit colleges and universities, such as the two mentioned above. The Colorado organization is known as Make Your Vote Count, a peculiar name for an organization that would dilute the value of your vote by about 90%. The group chose Colorado to start because, obviously, it's ridiculously easy to get an initiative onto the ballot here. Initiatives are subject to review by the State Supreme Court, on a number of grounds. In the past, initiatives have been denied becuase they dealt with more than one subject, but that doesn't seem to apply here. Of course, one other state where it's notoriously easy to put things on the ballot is California. The fact that a California-based group chose to conduct experiments here in Colorado suggests that it's not fairness or national reform that motivates them so much as those four electoral votes. After all, is Bush were to poll 45% in California, he might win as many as 25 of that state's electoral votes under the system they want to impose here. Some of this has been reported earlier, but I don't think people really the whole thing seriously until they showed up with 130,000 names. The Denver Post has shown some integrity by editorializing against the measure (on the editorial page, no less), on June 16 of this year. Cheating If It Isn't CloseApparently, Hugh's wrong. The Democrats in Colorado have found a way to cheat, even when it isn't close. They have gathered enough signatures for a ballot initiative making Colorado's electoral votes proportional, rather than winner-take-all.
This is clearly nothing more than an attempt to steal 4 electoral votes for Kerry, and also suggests that the Democrats behind it don't think they have much of a chance to carry the state in the fall. Republicans have to vote against this measure, and Kerry supporters should probably vote against it, too. What profit it their candidate if he win the state, but lose 4 electoral votes? The next time 5 Democratic Senators split ranks, see who calls the bill "bipartisan." As the article goes on to point out, the electors would split 5-4 every time, since over 61% of the vote would be required to split them 6-3. Colorado is basically a 55% state either way, meaning that even if the state were to grow in population, it's unlikely that winning it would mean more than 1 or 2 electoral votes. (After 2010, a tenth electoral vote would give the winner a 6-4 advantage.) This doesn't make Colorado more valuable, it makes it virtually insignificant. While supporters will claim that the measure isn't retroactive, the fact is that the parties have already chosen their electors (or will have, by the time of the election) and that the presidential campaign is already underway. I certainly hope that the state and national parties, and the Bush campaign, have lawayers looking at this thing now, preparing legal challenges. I have some faith that Colorado voters will reject this nonsense. But if they don't, the state has some chance of turning into this year's Florida. Sadly, I doubt that the Colorado Supreme Court's ruling on redistricting will apply here. While the Republican plan, too, could be construed as changing the rules too close to the election, it was based on wording in an amendment having to do specifically with redistricting, when Colorado grew enough to become a multi-district state. We're probably going to be arguing from an entirely difference set of principles here. Still, it occurs to me that it might be embarassing for Attorney General Ken Salazar, who failed to defend the state's redistricting plan in court when it was sued. One might legitimately ask what his position would be in this case, especially if he were elected to the Senate. Coors Also Swings WestThe Vail Daily had a brief report of a Coors stump speech there a few days ago. The specific positions are by now familiar to anyone who's been following the race at all. The good news is that Coors seems to be getting more comfortable on the stump.
One of Schaffer's greatest assets is his speaking ability. It's something Coors is going to need if he does end up with the nomination. UPDATE: The Durango Herald has a fairly standard report on a Coors stump appearance. Nothing spectacular, and, unfortunately, little reports of crowd reaction or size. |
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