Fred Barnes just said on Hugh's show that the networks are going to allot 3 hours total to each convention. If that's true, there will be almost no bounce of any significance. Instead of coming home each night to see the convention, people will only see the candidates' acceptance speeches, unless they watch cable. (Fred pointed out that mostly, the people who watch cable have already made up their minds.) Deprived of the more dynamic speakers, the focus will really be on the two principles.

This, I think, works significantly to the President's advantage. Kerry's not a great speaker, to say the least, and Bush's rhetoric has really flown since 9-11. Assuming Bush doesn't get bogged down in a State of the Union Address, and if Kerry sticks to his typical level of rhetoric, the President will compare very favorably. Since the conventions are so far apart, this really amounts to taking better advantage of his chance.