View From a Height
Commentary from the Mile High City
Thursday, April 29, 2004

Polls and Math 

The Rasmussen Poll has put Kerry back ahead by two points, breaking what had looked like a positive trend for the President. More ominous is the generic Congressional poll, which usually does a pretty good job of predicting the Congressional composition. The two have tended to move in lock-step. Since the President and Sen. Kerry are actual, identifiable characters, so one tends to think that the Congressional numbers are a reflection of presidential coattails.

A few things to note. That the President consistently beats the party as a whole is probably typical. The gap between the president and the GOP has been growing, albeit slowly. At the beginning of the month, a +3 for the President yielded a +1 for the GOP in Congress. Now, a recent +4 for Mr. Bush only got the Republicans to -1. This suggests that the President will have to have more than a squeaker to have any coattails. A President especially wants coattails going into a second term, when by year six, everyone is starting to look for his successor.

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