View From a Height

I'm Moving!

2004-11-08T08:09:00.000-07:00

No, not like Jonathan, to the wilds of Utah to build the new Zion. Heh.

No, this website it moving, from Blogspot to jsharf.com.

This site's archives will remain up, although what happens to the images is anyone's guess. Since I want to go ahead and dim the lights, join me over at the new site for the ribbon-cutting.

Arab Liberals Miss the Point

2004-11-07T13:58:00.000-07:00

The Indispensible MEMRI is reporting that a number of Arab Intellectuals are petitioning the UN to establish an international tribunal to try alleged terrorists:

On October 24, 2004, the liberal Arab websites www.elaph.com and www.metransparent.com published a manifesto written by Arab liberals, in which they petition the U.N. to establish an international tribunal which would prosecute terrorists, as well as people and institutions, primarily religious clerics, that incite terrorism.

The idea to petition the U.N. with this request was raised by the Jordanian writer and researcher Dr. Shaker Al-Nabulsi in early September 2004, in response to the fatwa issued by Sheikh Yousef Al-Qaradhawi - one of the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood movement and one of the most important religious authorities in Islamist circles - which called for the abduction and killing of U.S. citizens in Iraq. The idea was developed and written up by Al-Nabulsi, Tunisian intellectual Al-'Afif Al-Akhdhar, and former Iraqi Minister of Planning Dr. Jawad Hashem.

During the first 24 hours since the manifesto was published on the Internet, it was signed by approximately 2,000 people worldwide, including intellectuals, authors, poets, and journalists. The authors of the manifesto hope that within a week the number of signatures will reach 10,000, at which point it will be presented to the U.N.

Their assessment of the causes of terrorism is also striking:

It is not enough for the Security Council to adopt resolutions 'condemning' terrorism. What will be more effective is the establishment of an International Tribunal affiliated to the UN organization for the prosecution of individuals, groups, or entities involved, directly or indirectly, with terrorist activities including, but not limited to, fatwas issued by religious clerics in the name of Islam calling upon Muslims to commit terrorist acts.

By these fatwas all terrorists have died, or will die, fully convinced that they will immediately enter Paradise. Of course, we are not excluding other causes for committing terrorist acts, such as the ticking-bomb of population explosion with its resultant illiteracy, poverty, unemployment, backwardness in education systems, reactionary religious teaching, and, above all, living under dictatorial systems of governments in almost all Arab countries. But despite the above causes, certain religious fatwas remain the pivotal cause of terrorist acts - fatwas which clothe such terrorist acts with legitimacy as being one of the sacred tenets of Muslim faith.

There's both good and bad here. The good is that the folks are putting the blame where it goes. The only mention of Israel in the entire document is a quote of an unacceptable fatwa. There's no dodging, no attempt to blame the West, no attempt to blame Israel. They point the finger directly at the bad guys for exploiting the degraded state of the Arab world. The also recognize that this is a Muslim phenomenon, rooted in a mutant strain of the Muslim religion. It'll be a hopeful sign if they can actually get 10,000 signatures.

Nevertheless, the petition is misdirected. The UN is hardly the place the go with this. In the first place, it's clearly not interested. In the second, the Arab delegations there, controlled by the dictatorial governments these people so obviously despise, have a stranglehold over any deliberations there. The diplomats who prowl around Turtle Bay aren't really interested in empowering the people of these countries; they're interested in getting along with the other diplomats. How long would it be before Israel and her government officials, or the US and her President were designated "terrorists?" Ask the Belgians.

Secondly, I'm a little dismayed that these men of good faith, while recognizing that the rot is from within, cannot also see that the solution has to be there, as well. They're repeating the mistake that Bernard Lewis and Fouad Ajami have often noted: the temptation to look to someone else for a solution.

The notion of a terrorist tribunal is not without merit. But it will have to be run by those countries part of a Coalition of the Willing. For now, this means the US and her allies in Iraq, but also Iraq itself, Afghanistan, and perhaps India, Pakistan, Turkey, Indonesia. The inclusion of responsible Muslim states, or states with responsible Muslim minorities, would encourage Arab countries to clean up their acts. If backed up by vigorous military action, it should be able to finish its work and disband.

Why, even after all this time, is the UN seen as the only, or even the proper source, for international legitimacy?

The Guardian In Mourning

2004-11-07T13:02:00.000-07:00

I am reliably informed that the Guardian's pull-out section on Thursday had a solid-black cover, with the two words, "Oh, God".

How I wish I could get a copy.

The Election Isn't the War

2004-11-07T10:25:00.000-07:00

Iraq is facing, at this point, a civil war. Now, it's not a Civil War like ours, with the sides holding roughly comparable territories, and looking even-matched at the outset. But Iraqi-vs.-Iraqi it is.

It takes a special kind of steel to order the deaths of your countrymen. Grant was not the butcher he was made out to be, he just wanted the war to be over with. Sherman understood that the US Civil War wouldn't be over until, maybe 10,000 "bitter-enders" had been killed. Lincoln gave him the room to do it, and it must have tortured his soul.

This week, this day, is a time of testing for Iraqi President Allawi. He must allow us to go in and finish the job. The enemy are men who fancy themselves tough. Their leaders routinely prove themselves cowards by blowing up unarmed and innocent men. But they are willing to do horrible things in order to win.

Weakness now will only persuade both Americans and Iraqis that Allawi is not willing to do what it takes to win.

Lincoln understood the Civil War to be a terrible price for the nation's sins, but a price we had to pay in order to emerge united and free. Allawi needs to look that bill in the face and say he's willing to pay it.

The Unfunny One At It Again

2004-11-07T10:05:00.000-07:00

You would think that Garrison Keillor would learn. He ranted and raved after 2000. He called electing Norm Coleman in 2002 a "cheap, low-rent mistake, like going to a great steakhouse and ordering the tuna melt." He published a book during the campaign that he probably thought sounded like blogging but came off more like a guy who had mislaid his glasses and hearing aide, couldn't find his meds and couldn't hear the answer when he asked where they were.

Last night, I happened to catch the first few minutes of Prairie Home Companion, and Keillor's welcome to his audience (I'm quoting from memory, but there's nothing missing that changes the clear meaning of his rant):

Now that the election is over, I'm going to start a movement to revoke the vote from born-again Christians. (Laughter & Applause.) My feeling is that they're citizens of Heaven, so they really should be exercising their rights up there....

If you believe that higher education is superfluous, if you believe that war in the Middle East is the fulfillment of a prophecy, if you believe that poverty is God's way of drawing you closer to Him by making you more dependent...

Right. I read Alliance blogs all the time, and that's just what they say. I know screwing yourself into the ground flaililng away at an Eephus pitch is awfully embarassing, but why compound the humiliation?

Sadly, the good showing by Minnesota Democrats this year is only likely to encourage this sort of thing.

Your tax dollars at work.

Blogspot Beginning to Creak

2004-11-05T11:50:00.000-07:00

The last few days have been rough ones for blogspot. I've had problems posting and editing that extend across computers, firewalls, and platforms. It's about time I joined the exodus. More details as they become available...

Golden Days

2004-11-04T18:34:00.000-07:00

Tired of being in the house, and not want to be bound by the Arafat Death Watch, I decided to head out to Golden for the afternoon.

I used to work here, when I first moved to Denver, back in 1997-1998. It's one of the few towns that hasn't been swallowed up by development. The geography is such that even with the new Home Depot, and the huge Colorado Mills Mall, the downtown area is largely untouched and untouchable. Still, while it hasn't grown all that much, it has been...upgraded.

Clear Creek still flows here, but there's a new bridge across it carrying Wahington Street, with a little museum on the sidewalks. There's a new hotel, the Golden Hotel. The things looks nice but dull as dishwater, and the name suggests Black Hawk or Central City. There's a new parking lot, and the library advertises Free Wifi. And now, the houses are clinging to ever-more-vertical parts of South Table Mountain.

It's pushed right up against the foothills, and you can walk right up into them from town. The downtown has been preserved from the late 1800s, early 1900s.

Now, if we could only get a shul out there...

The Eephus Pitch

2004-11-04T13:28:00.000-07:00

Last year, I diagnosed Jonathan Chait's problem as similar to the batter facing an eephus pitch. Looks easy to hit. The batter either ends up drilling for oil in the batter's box, or grounding out weakly to the infield.

The Daily News reports that John Kerry used virtually the same words as Jon Lovitz back in April. (Hat Tip: Kerry Spot)

The article actually reveals what we had all feared: a man with virtually no understanding of the motives of others, outmaneuvered tactically by Karl Rove, and unable to capitalize on his advantages. In particular, he can't understand why John McCain might not want to be his Veep:

It started in August 2003, but kicked into high gear after Kerry nailed the nomination. He even offered to expand the veep's role to control defense and foreign policy. "You're out of your mind," McCain told Kerry. "I don't even know if it's constitutional, and it certainly wouldn't sell."

Kerry seemed stunned that McCain rebuffed him "after what the Bush people did to him," referring to the 2000 GOP presidential primary.

This ought to bother people more than a little. Suppose that Kerry actually meant it. He was running a strategy that called for attacking the President's strong suit. If it succeeded, Bush would have little left to respond with. He was presenting himself as the foreign policy alternative. He was running on his war record. But he was going to outsource foreign policy control to his Vice-President. Spare me the jokes about Dick Cheney as Puppetmaster. Nobody doubts that the President has a strong team, but he makes the final decisions.

Worse, Kerry was going to staff his cabinet and foreign policy staff with appeasers, and ask them to work under the unofficial direction of a man whose only point of agreement with the President is the war.

There's a reason Senators don't get elected President very often. Senators have to put together staffs, but they don't have to execute policy. Thank G-d this one never got the chance.

The Jewish Vote

2004-11-04T11:17:00.000-07:00

George Bush's gains among Jewish voters were disappointing at best. Boker Tov, Boulder! has a breakdown of the numbers, and it appears that President Bush got about 25% of the Jewish vote nationally.

So we have perhaps been saved from ourselves. Had the President lost, and Charles Krauthammer been right, and a President Kerry thrown Israel to the European wolves, we would have had mostly ourselves to blame.

The news and the vote come at a dangerous time. Tony Blair used his post-US-election speech yesterday to cash in his foreign policy chips with President Bush. He was there for Bush in Iraq, now it was time to get serious about helping the Palestinians dismantle Israel.

The imminent death of Arafat could certainly provide a false sense of optimism among some, an excuse to hope that the next round of brigands are "practical men," "pragmatists," not ideologues. In other words, the same thing some of us convinced ourselves that Arafat was.

Those of us who voted for the President did so because we believe that he's shown himself to be a man of principle over politics. Now, more than ever, we're relying on that belief.

The 2nd Term Begins

2004-11-04T10:36:00.000-07:00

Hey, if Mark Halperin can pronounce Bush a lame duck, he can start his 2nd term early, right?

President Bush has announced that he's going to move quickly to reform Social Security. This will include partial privatization, but surpsingly, will not cut seniors' benefits by 45%. This can only be good news. The window for action, especially on the domestic agenda, is going to be short.

The only real issue here is the transition costs, as money that would have funded current expenditures some years from now is in personal accounts instead. The main selling point here is that returns will, over the long haul, be much higher than the 1-2% you see now. Most of the middle-class is used to talking to financial planners. This is just going to be one more revenue stream for many of them.

The counter-argument will be that the poor, or working poor, don't have that familiarity and are liable to "gamble" their money on junk bonds or high-tech stocks or the next Big Bubble. Two answers. First, the poor and working poor are the ones who get cheated the most by the system as it stands. They put in less, get out less, have less saved for retirement, and the paltry returns mean they often don't live long enough to even get their money back.

Second, you can tailor a system to allow only certain kinds of investments. Mutual funds, or bond funds. Funds that don't jump around so much. Yes, the overall return won't be so high, but financial planners generally tell you to have some portion of your money in conservative investments. This can be that money.

Someone needs to figure out a simple way to explain future value to people. President Reagan liked to use charts. Maybe, when he's unveiling his proposal, President Bush can use a simple chart explaining how much more this will mean to the average middle- or lower-middle-class wage-earner.

I always felt that the "ownership society" was one of the key long-term accomodations to reality the country needs to make. It allows us to be more flexible, while at the same time relieving the government of a fiscal burden it's not going to be able to bear.

The Dial's Not For Turning

2004-11-03T23:40:00.000-07:00

Warning: Not Edited. Rated PG. Just not edited.

I'm with Hugh. It's not a time for gloating, just great relief, great thanks, and great hope. I feel a great deal like I imagine John Wesley Powell must have felt going through the first set of rapids in the Grand Canyon. There's no sense climbing out - three guys tried that and never came back. We've got no idea how long this goes on. But those rapids, going through them was hell, but we're through them now.

Still, it's worth exulting in the depression of the maniacal left. So, after Hugh, after the coffee shop, and in the car to class, it was over to Randi Rhodes and Air America!, that ongoing contribution-in-kind to the flesh-eating virus of Michael-Mooreism, eating away at a once-great party. Maybe it says something about me that the only time I could listen to Air America for more than, oh 30 seconds, was right after everything they hold dear had gone up in smoke on the runway. I like to think it says something about them.

When I tune in, she'd going on about Diebold! and Ohio! and Missing Ballots! and electronic voting machines!

I'd be happier with a paper trail, too, Randi. One like the punch cards provide, ahem. I wasn't the one who shrieked that punch-cards were Torquemada's polling device, or sued to stop a recall election because not everyone was using electronic machines yet.

Jeb Bush! and Broward! and we'll never know! Even the Bloody Chad made an appearance, where the newspapers after the fact showed that 6 our of 9 Post-Election Recount Scenarios recommend Gore. That is, if there had even been a recount.

When that's sort of played out, "Sigh, I'm not saying it isn't over, just that we know they stole Ohio." She's off on how "they" ("they" being "you") have established "one-party government" where "dissent isn't allowed." Where, and I'm not making this up, people like her, who oppose the war, will be treated like Salem Witches by the People of a Certain Kind of Religion who now run the government. "We've turned the clock back so far...." So far that what? That there are no clocks, just lines on a big rock in the middle of town that are useless, useless! when the sun's not out. Which is always, now that "they've" stolen the sun!

Enough. I can listen to this now, knowing that their heads exploded and their technicians are busy cleaning pumpkin off the studio walls. But I don't want to. I listen to this for about 15 minutes, and I feel the physical heat that accompanies pain and unpleasantness. I long for Radio That Aims at My Head Not Below My Belt.

I was really worried at times on Monday, even with Obi-Wan and Qui Gong and the gang at Kerry Spot telling me that the Force was with Bush. (At one point Tuesday night, when things were uncertain, I tried a pidgin accent a la Jar-Jar, "Ain't nobody know nuthin'". Ben: "That's not very convincing." Me: "Yeah, well neither was Jar-Jar.")

But I got up from the makeshift studio in the doomed Senate campaign believing that everything would be all right. Good leaders will do that for you.

Regionalism & A Word of Caution

2004-11-03T18:06:00.000-07:00

There's been a lot of discussion of the collapse of the Democratic Party in the South. That's fair. The numbers are indisputable, from governorships to House seats to Senators to state legislatures. The lineup is making is structurally impossible for the Democrats to take back the House, difficult to be competitive in the Senate, and puts them at a large disadvantage in the Electoral College.

And yet.

Take a look at the Northeast. See any red? Me either.

Take a look at the margins in these states. Aside from Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, they weren't even close. In the upper midwest, with the exception of the Illinois Implosion, the party is still competitive, or newly competitive.

The party remains viable in most of those states. A number have Republican governors. Left-leaning or centrist Republicans can get elected to the Senate. Connecticut and New Hampshire can still elect Republican congressmen. But the parties have shown steady erosion.

Among state legislatures, the Republicans control only 6 chambers total in that blue region: New Hampshire and Pennsylvania outright, and splitting New York and Delaware. This is an even worse showing than the Democrats in the south.

Over time, voters will discover that they're happier voting for left-leaning Democrats than for left-leaning Republicans who lose their power to Southern conservatives and vote with a conservative caucus. More blue; less red.

There's a reason that George Pataki and Rudy Giuliani will never win the nomination. They may be law-and-order, strong-defense Republicans. But neither really has much spending discipline, and both are pretty leftish on social issues. It's a reason that there are so few northeastern Republicans in leadership positions, and as Powerline points out, it costs us more than distinctive rhetoric.

Watching Giuliani reminded me of one of the costs of the party's decline in the Northeast. The party's leaders are now generally Southwestern and Midwestern; as such, their styles tend to be laconic and soft-spoken. Giuliani is urban, Italian and Northeastern to the core, and he needed those traditions to deliver the speech he gave last night.

This needs to be addressed. Just as smart Democrats are looking to reconnect with the south, so smart Republicans need to find a way to make their party acceptable to people in New York. A national party needs to have national acceptance. First of all, not everything that turned red last night will always be so reliable. Look at what happened in Colorado. Secondly, as the Democrats are finding out, the longer you're out of touch with one part of the country, the harder it gets to reconnect. It also becomes more difficult to govern that part of the country, to draw on its talents and resources when they're needed.

The President has put together a remarkable coalition, but like all political achievements, it's written on water. Probably sooner than we think, we'll either need, or regret not having, one or more of those states.

Another Note on Last Night

2004-11-03T17:56:00.000-07:00

Is there any doubt that the CNN Election Site is the crack cocaine of election night? It was easier to follow the election from there than it was from the floor of the party, with people who actually knew bits and pieces of what was going on.

So here's a suggestion for 2006. Instead of wasting a screen on a projected "Leadership Matters" banner that nobody is going to remember 2 minutes after they leave the room, line up a bunch of windows from important states and races, and keep refreshing them.

Gay Marriage Initiatives

2004-11-03T17:24:00.000-07:00

I personally don't think they actually do much good directly. They passed in all 11 states. The threat is that either state courts or federal court use the "Full Faith and Credit" clause to shoehorn in a national requirement. These measures, even the state constitutional amendments, won't stop sufficiently determined judges.

Such judges are not only willing to ignore the law to achieve their ends, they have also shown utter contempt for even overwhelming popular opposition to their social engineering. David Frum chronicles in detail how courts in Boston, and indeed, nationally, ignored popular, bi-racial majorities of 80-90% opposing busing.

The value of these referenda isn't that they establish any law that courts can't overturn. The value is that they place front-and-center, in terms most people can understand, the importance of judges, and the importance of appointing judges who respect the law, rather than making it up as they go along.

UPDATE: Listening to Hugh's show. I say it here. John Eastman says it there five minutes later. At least I'm in good company.

Memo From Mark Helperin

2004-11-03T17:01:00.000-07:00

To ABC News:

I understand that Bill Clinton was also at some point a "lame duck," in that he, too, was elected to a second and final four-year term. However, President Clinton was only a lame duck in a narrow, technical, factual sense, where Presiden Bush is a lame duck in a broad, ideological sense. While we must be fair, we musn't allow electoral similarities to push us into a false equivalence.

Exit Polls

2004-11-03T13:48:00.000-07:00

Fox News is also obsessing a little with the exit polls. Honestly? When I called a friend of mine who had Net access and was following the exit polls, and he said Kerry was rolling them up, my first reaction was, "eh." Really. Look, I was worried about Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. But exit polls? WIth 25% of the electorate having voted early?

There was too much contrary data out there for a 5-point national move in Kerry's direction over night. Or a 5-point national move in Bush's direction. There was nothing in this electorate that suggested that kind of volatility. So the only thing to do was to ignore them, along with all the other polls, and wait for actual returns.

Shepard Smith just said another network looked "giddy." Good for them. They got what they deserved.

By the way. Kerry's concession seems to have emboldened those analyzing the Senate races to finally call Florida and Alaska the way they'd obviously gone.

Blair on Palestinians

2004-11-03T13:42:00.000-07:00

The gang on Fox is going on about Blair's speech after the election. Blair really hit the Israel-Palestinian thing hard. It's clear that he wants to return to the status-quo-ante, propping up a Palestinian Authority that still seems committed to Israel's destruction, perpetuating war rather than allowing Israel to defend itself. Let's hope that the President is able to resist the pressure.

And remember, it's unlikely that a Prime Minister Howard would be giving the same signals...

Concessions & Acceptances

2004-11-03T13:10:00.000-07:00

Funny that, after a campaign where Edwards often seemed to outshine Kerry, at the very end, Kerry's speech was much more - Presidential - than Edwards's.

Edwards, following on his obnoxious line about having "waited four years for this victory [sic]," started off harping about "fighting for every vote" in an election he was giving up on. He then went on to further unify the country by sympathizing with "mothers who've sent their sons to Iraq still waiting for an answer why." Way to go, John.

Kerry's speech did have its weak spots. He thanked his "Band of Brothers" yet again. Personally, I was thinking the same thing. Heh. And going on again about the 6-year-old he took $680 from probably reminded a lot of people of what they didn't like about the man.

But then: "We all wake up as Americans." And then, calling for his own party and the country to fall in line behind the President on the Iraq War, and acknowledging our soldiers in harm's way, for the first time in a long time. It turned into a gracious speech, sticking to liberalism, acknowledging that politics goes on, but nicely and fairly concisely admitting that the first priority has to be the country.

Kerry managed to rise above his campaign in his concession, and the country will be better off for it.

Contrast this with Cheney and Bush. Cheney was funny, accepting credit for delivering Wyoming. Bush didn't talk much about the phone call from Kerry, except to call it a "really good phone call." Doesn't that sound just like Bush?

The speech, especially the part about the Democrats sharing one country, one Constitution, and one destiny was particularly good.

It was short on specifics, but it sounds like those will be along fairly quicky. On the whole, both speeches leave me a little more hopeful than yesterday.

Who Knows How They're Calling These?

2004-11-03T08:05:00.000-07:00

As of this writing, the President is at 270 in none of the network projections. None of the networks that has called, say, Nevada for him has called Ohio, and vice-versa. Since he needs Ohio and one other state, he's below the threshold for avoiding 1824. Interestingly, there doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason to who's calling what. Those who've called Nevada won't call Iowa. Wisconsin has a smaller margin than New Mexico, but seems safe for Kerry?

I'm resolutely not calling this typical media bias, or a left-wing conspiracy in newsrooms. Any such theory would have to account for Fox. More likely, these guys are just being overly cautious. But while it adds to the drama, it only encourages Daschle-like obstinacy and feeds the fever swamps.

More, after I walk the dog and have breakfast, check the job listings, and enjoy a few minutes away from television and the Net. Probably about this prediction-concession business, and My Day At The Polls.

Coors Concedes

2004-11-02T23:33:00.000-07:00

Pete Coors is on the podium now, conceding the election to Ken Salazar. Coors is being gracious, almost courtly, in thanking his volunteers, congratulating Salazar, and complimenting the process and the state. It's a good speech, but vanilla, which perhaps better than anything else sums up the Coors campaign, and possibly what lost him the seat.

Money line: "I will now go back to having the greatest job in America: runnin' a beer company."

This, along with the loss of the state House and Senate, has to make this one of the worst nights for Colorado Republicans in a long time. If Powerline talks about the Minnesota Massacre, perhaps we now have a Colorado Catastrophe.

The good news in the medium run is the presence of a fine state Treasurer Mike Coffman, and the likelihood of his being the next governor of the state. Hopefully, he'll have some coattails, too.

RMA In Force

2004-11-02T22:20:00.000-07:00

Clay, Bob, and Michael all showed up, Ben just walked into the Business Center, and for a while, I was helping them out stealing a dial-up, which was probably more reliable that the land-line connection from the ballroom.

I also had a chance to talk with Nicol Andrews from the Bush-Cheney Colorado campaign. Nicol has been very accomodating to requests for press credentials, and spoke very highly of the blogs in general, and the alternative news source they provide.

Back Online, Back from the Wars

2004-11-02T20:14:00.000-07:00

I made it to the Republican party here in the DTC, straight from the polling place. The experience was nowhere nearly as harrowing as I had feared, except when the two old hens I was working with started obsessing about The Return Of The Draft towards the end.

I've gone ahead and got credentialed, although it appears that the only Net connection is available in a Business Center, and contrary to popular opinion at the front desk, they charge for the wifi. The press credentials though, are working their magic, making Republicans look at me like tuna carefully eyeing the shark swimming about. My cellmate here is a very pleasant British Blogress, the appropriately named Sarah Left, who's blogging for the Guardian, right now trying to figure out how the technology's working on the other end.

The short answer is: fine. There were 524 people registered at the precinct, 209 of them voted early, many of the rest voted between 7AM and 9AM, leaving the place cold and bereft of voters by closing time. The little purple "After Hours Voters" cards were a waste of the taxpayers' money. And the irony is that the people who went to vote early in order to avoid the lines ended up waiting the longest.

OK, into the breach. More later.

For What It's Worth

2004-11-02T04:37:00.000-07:00

After an adrenalyne-inhibited sleep, it's off to the polls. I'll be here, any case anyone feels like dropping off fruit. No? OK, I guess not.

Look, it's going to be a good day. This governor-then-president has gone through more second-guessing than just about anyone I can remember, including from you and me. 2000 was too close, should have campaigned through the weekend, weren't ready for the DUI. Should he be aiming so high for those tax cuts? Why did it take three weeks(!) to respond in Afghanistan? (I actually heard this.) And of course, why Iraq?

These are people with good instincts. Remember a month ago, when the conventional wisdom was that President Kerry would get a Democratic Senate? Not going to happen. Remember when Amendment 36 threatened to turn Colorado into a mudpit of litigation, the likes of which we haven't seen since last night in South Dakota? Not going to happen.

We all want this. But Kerry wants it too much.

Which is why he's not going to get it.

One More Note

2004-11-02T01:52:00.000-07:00

It was reported several days ago that a number of absentee ballots had been mailed out late. Apparently they were late coming back from the printer in California. While Hugh was on the air, the Secretary of State issued a media advisory that overseas and military voters would have an extra 10 days to return those ballots. No fuss, no muss, no Governor Rendell trying to disenfranchise people defending his sorry hide from religious fanatics trying to kill him.

Colorado has Ft. Carson, and a large number of soldiers have been deployed to Iraq from here, so in a close race, this could make a difference.

Good Night

2004-11-02T01:22:00.000-07:00

OK. It's late. I've finished calculating how the convexity of a bond changes with yield, and the dog is asleep next to my desk, too tired to demand I open the door so he can get to the pillow in the bedroom. I need to be up in 4 1/2 hours for a day of "Is that Schevaredsky with an 's' or with a 'z'?", and "No, I'm sorry Ma'am, but you really can't parade around in the polling place in a Kerry-Edwards shirt that looks like you're naming parts of your anatomy after them.

Good Night. Maybe a few words of encouragement in the morning.

Pennsylvania Prediction

2004-11-01T23:34:00.000-07:00

Not to be an Eeyore, but I just don't see how Bush wins Pennsylvania tomorrow. Even if the polls really do show him surging, Democrats have registered so many new voters in Philadelphia so as to virtually secure the state. Ah, I hear you cry, "What if they don't show up?" Well, in 2000, some precincts had turnouts of 100%, going 98% for Gore. Who says they need to show up?

Congrats to Clay

2004-11-01T22:38:00.000-07:00

Who came down to HQ just as the network went down. Post hoc ergo propter hoc. Clay has been selected for the 2005 Leadership Program of the Rockies for Republicans.

Personal Impressions

2004-11-01T20:10:00.000-07:00

I got a chance to speak very briefly with three people at the "studio." First was Bob Beauprez. In studio, you get to see how people react, what they look like, what they laugh at, and what they look like when they laugh. And on radio, people may be conscious of the audience, but feel more free to be themselves. (Although I did find myself waving "hello" at the microphone more than once.)

Beauprez came across as the real deal.

He wasn't afraid to laugh out loud. He wasn't afraid to let it linger for a little while. Look, he's a politician, and he certainly came back to his talking points. But representing a district with few Jews, he's a strong supporter of Israel. And when I thanked him afterwards for going to Paris and talking to UNESCO about anti-Semitism, he was genuinely moved, and genuinely appreciative. The speech didn't get much play here in the states, and he clearly hasn't heard often enough from American Jews about this. Tell him.

Then, there was the woman from Omaha who came up to me to tell me how her aunt and uncle had converted to Judaism. She seemed delighted by this, happy to have the connection. Obviously, she loves her aunt and uncle, but it's astonishing to me that this was a source not of resentment, but almost of pride. No, we don't seek converts, and that's not the point of this story, if there is one.

And lastly, I got to meet Pete Coors, very briefly. Yes, he's very tall. And, yes, he's very busy. But he took a moment to let me know that he thinks DU has a better business school now than when he was there. Coming from guy running on his business background, I'm not quite sure what to make of that.

Finally, we need to thank Michele Austin. I know she pretends to be embarassed by all this, but she's been a trouper, producing Hugh's show locally, getting press credentials for us bloggers, doing legwork, handing Hugh pictures to sign, making sure we're aware of what's going on. It's people like her, who deliberately stay out of the limelight, who make this stuff work.

Real Technical Difficulties

2004-11-01T19:11:00.000-07:00

As I wrote that last post, the Wifi at the campaign HQ went down. I assume it wasn't something I said. Since the real goal here was to put on a radio show, not coddle a weblog, I just sat back and enjoyed the rest.

Hugh's good, and, as you can hear, embarassingly generous with plugs. (Every day, I see the hourly hit count decline from 4-7 Mountain Time, and then pick back up a little. Today was the exception.) I really had no idea he'd say anything about my being there, but it's a sign of how much he wants the blogosphere to succeed as an alternative to the MSM. The Alliance, and whatever we tackle next after the Senate race, will be trying our hardest.

Power Hour

2004-11-01T17:27:00.000-07:00

I'm sitting here, maybe 15 ft. from Gov. Owens and future Senator Pete Coors. Pete is "stoked," and looks remarkably well for a guy who's been working nonstop for, what 96 hours already?

Honestly, Coors looks like he really, honestly appreciates the efforts of the volunteers. It's kind of like the NCAA Tournament, where they say, "nobody's a freshman." He's been hardened a little by the campaign, but is very much a political amateur.

Campaign Juvenalia

2004-11-01T17:16:00.000-07:00

As I've been sitting here, I've gotten the same piece of junk email claiming that a conservative columnist for the Orlando Sentinal has come out against Bush. This is below comment on many, many levels, but the fact that it keeps coming around it astonishing.

While You're Here

2004-11-01T17:11:00.000-07:00

Take a look the Daily Blogster. He's got a nice comprehensive roundup of campaign violence and intimidation that we're seeing around the country. Americans are made of tougher stuff than that, and let's hope that their abject failure tomorrow forces the Dems to reassess their party in more ways than one.

Hour Number 2

2004-11-01T17:06:00.000-07:00

Last techie post. I've finally gotten my computer to catch up with real life, but it's funny - it's running about 45 seconds behind, which is almost more disorienting than hearing half the conversation.

Back To the Top of the Hour

2004-11-01T16:55:00.000-07:00

They're getting crowded in now, and people are pressed up against the glass like little kids looking in a penny candy store with a dime to spend.

It turns out that all the Californians who are here are outside the demographic. Really an impressive showing by a party apparatus allccating resources.

Now, I've gotta figure out why I'm getting Friday's show from KRLA. They may have the third hour live, but right now, it's the third hour from yesterday.

Sean Tonner

2004-11-01T16:40:00.000-07:00

Here's the guy running Pete Coors's campaign, and managing the 96-Hour effort. Hugh's asking about snow again. Maybe it's hangover from the snowmobile incident, maybe he's just not used to seeing the stuff...

More Live-Blogging

2004-11-01T16:24:00.000-07:00

Trade Secrets. Hugh's interviewing Lileks right now, and we in the studio aremissing all the bon mots. Because of the feedback, they can't play it back in the studio. So we're getting one side of the conversation. If we were getting the other side, it would be like a Newhart monologue.

Ah, but I have a Net connection. So I go to KRLA, and listen to the show there. Tom Tancredo. Tom's a great guy, but he's not Lileks. He many even be shorter than Lileks. If I had locational disconnect Thursday, I have a temporal disconnect now.

Maybe we'll petition him to play the segment during the top-of-the-hour break...

Live Blogging Hugh Hewitt

2004-11-01T16:04:00.000-07:00

Interviewing Andy McIlhaney, the President-in-Waiting of the Colorado State Senate. Chance to talk about Pete Coors, GOTV, and the weather. (Personally, I think we're hardier than that.) And a good chance to talk about the Evil Amendment 36.

It's here in the Pete Coors HQ, in a conference room, with room for about 15 audience members. Even a couple "outside the demographic," i.e., younger than 40.

Also got a chance to meet Sean Duffy, proprietor of the new, smartly-written The Right Word. Sean's a real insider, and seems very optimistic about Pete Coors's chances tomorrow.

Missing Priorities at the Post

2004-11-01T13:57:00.000-07:00

The Denver Post has made an editorial decision that voter disenfranchisement is more of a problem than potential vote fraud. But their last pre-election article about potential election irregularities is among their worst. It contains not only emphasis on theoretical disenfranchisement and "chilling" at the expense of potential fraud. It, along with the Post's FAQ, contains factual inaccuracies. At this point in the process, with the story having been in the news for so long, neither of these is excusable.

First the FAQ:

Any voter ID with an address must reflect a Colorado address. The address need not match the voter registration address.

Mostly right. But very wrong where it counts: if they're using a utility bill, it does have to match, and I think I'm probably going to enforce this pretty strictly. People are going to read this, and show up thinking that any old utility bill will work. I can imagine dozens, hundreds of people in Denver being turned away over this, and then complaining about it, to news organizations, and poll watchers. The source for this faulty information is Fair Vote Colorado, who shouldn't be cited for anything like that. The Secretary of State and the Denver Election Commission should be sourced.

The Post also lists four organizations voters can report voting problems to. These are presented as non-partisan, impartial organizations. In fact, none of them could fairly be described that way:

Common Cause - the people who originally tried to turn our elections into a free-for-all.
Fair Vote Colorado - Founded and Funded by the Bighorn Center
Election Protection - Affiliated with People for the American Way
Coloradoans for Voting Integrity - Founded by Bob McGrath. Note his affiliations.

Susan Greene, meanwhile, reports that:

Meanwhile, counties have faced heavy backlogs processing the swell of new voters. Most had caught up by Friday. But some, such as populous Jefferson County, still hadn't finished adding new names to its lists, even though early voting started 11 days earlier.

In the scramble, many mistakes were made.

One activist, Ben Prochazka - who registered through his own group, the New Voters Project - waited two hours to vote early in Denver before being turned away because the clerk who processed his registration form had spelled his name incorrectly.

Does anyone else find it more than a little suspicious that Mr. Prochazka, an activist who couldn't possibly be any more registration-aware, never bothered to check on the status of his own registration? Isn't it, perhaps, slightly more likely that he was testing the system a little, seeing how election judges would respond?

Ms. Greene was sitting not 10 feet away from me during the Common Cause hearings. One of the witnesses in those hearings had precisely this problem: her name on her ID had been trucated. She refused a name change form on the grounds that her name hadn't changed. Why didn't Mr. Prochazka, if he really wanted to vote, request the same?

In fact, the whole discussion of errrors is more than a little ironic coming from the Post, given that it spent weeks ridiculing the very notion that voter fraud did or could exist in Colorado. The paper relented only when hundreds of fraudulent regustrations were reported by 9News.

The Post discovered nearly 6000 felons on the voting rolls, but half the discussion of that topic is over a completely hypothetical "chilling effect" on criminals eligible to vote.

What's missing from this report, in fact, what's been missing from the Post's coverage all along is any attempt to take the next step seriously. When Common Cause launched their lawsuit, the paper pointed out, multiple times, that the state had no history of vote fraud. When registrations were found, the paper was more concerned with finding the numbers than in looking at the rules and potential holes. When some numbers were given, the paper never called for Attorney General Salazar to recuse himself. And the Post has yet to discuss mechanisms by which fraud could reasonably be perpetrated, aside from registrations in multiple counties.

Voter Rolls? Heck, Collections Lists

2004-11-01T13:41:00.000-07:00

Today, I got a call from some sort of agency trying to track down a K------ B------. When I first moved here, I got a lot of calls like that. Apparently, K------ B----- had my phone number just before I did, and left a trail of either bad debts or custody problems or something. Then vanished without a trace.

That was alsmost eight years ago. You would think that she'd pretty much be off all the records by now, but no. Now, we know that private firms are better at this sort of thing that governments. So you tell me what hope there is for getting the voter rolls cleared up.

Star Trek

2004-11-01T11:46:00.000-07:00

Sci-Fi Channel is running "Doomsday Machine" right now. I'm sure Lileks, or his TiVo, is glued to the set.

"The Moment of Accountability"

2004-11-01T10:01:00.000-07:00

Just heard Kerry on a sound-bite. "This is the moment of accountability, this is the moment where the world will be watching."

Sounds like an instant, last-minute GOP commercial to me.

The Post Discovers a Labor Shortage

2004-11-01T09:34:00.000-07:00

The Denver Post has finally figured out that maybe, just maybe, having tens of thousands of absentee and provisional ballots to count by hand might just lead to mistakes in counting.

What the Blogs are Saying

2004-11-01T09:15:00.000-07:00

Umbria, a Boulder company, is providing some competition to Technorati. Unfortunately, it looks like it's pay-only.

More Good Economic News

2004-11-01T08:58:00.000-07:00

Consumer spending and personal income were up again, while construction spending was flat, year-over-year it's up 9% from last year, and the Institute of Supply Manager's manufacturing survey stayed high at 56.8.

Naturally, none of this is going to get headline treatment the day before the election. Especially not when it can help the President.

This Makes Me Feel Much Better

2004-11-01T08:32:00.000-07:00

Apparently, those Europeans think they have something to teach us about democracy:

"We will tell the people of Ohio whether their election is free and fair," said one of the observers, Hugo Coveliers, a Belgian senator who plans to monitor voting in Cleveland.

...

Nevertheless, the observers hope their presence will serve as a "preventative to the shenanigans," said Mr. Coveliers, the Belgian senator. "What [the voters] can be sure about is, if there are obvious shortcomings, an international organization of 55 countries will declare there are shortcomings."

Admittedly, some of the delegates are here to learn and observe, rather than play schoolmarm to a bunch of untutored country bumpkins from the frontier. Still, do you want this clown lecturing you on your electoral process?

Would you like to tell him what you think of his "organisation internationale de cinquante-cinq pays." Be polite, sil vous plait.

It would appear that he's one of the directly-election Belgian Senators, the Beligians having taken quotas to their logical conclusion and reserved 21 Senators to distinct ethnic groups. Perhaps, like the Guardian, we might consider a letter-writing campaign during the next Belgian elections, describing the immense damage that Monsieur Coveliers has done to our valuable and much-cherished bilateral relations.

Just a thought.

Hat Tip: Andrew Stuttaford at the NRO Corner

Happy Anniversary

2004-10-31T09:05:00.000-07:00

As I was driving out to Albertson's yesterday to pick up Pepto and NyQuil and Earl Grey, I happened to hear the weekend edition of NPR's least capitalism-hostile show, Marketplace. They mentioned this, and I couldn't resist the shock value.

I promise: more election stuff later

And I promise: I won't ever do that to you again.

Election Judge Training

2004-10-30T19:54:00.000-06:00

In the background, on Hugh's show, as I read Kerry Spot for the 14th time last night: a woman's voice, talking about how she'll support our troops in combat. Could have been Marilyn Musgrave. Then, "my opponent, Loretta Sanchez..." Locational disconnect, until I remembered that I was listening to Hugh online, and I was getting campaign ads for Southern California.

The election judge training was simultaneously encouraging and worrisome. Encouraging because so many normal people were there, wanting to take care of the process. Worrisome because some of them were barely paying attention, others were having a hard time following fairly simple processes, and at least one woman should have been carrying a drum and a "Count Every Vote Sign." I was relieved to see my old friend Bill Eigles, who theoretically contributes to this blog on an occasional basis, was there. So there's one more precinct where there won't be any shennanigans.

I have seen "flowcharts" of a sort, showing what the election judge should do in different situations, resolving conflicts in the rules, and reducing the number of decisions to be made. Sadly, the state's election judge handbook includes no such flowchart. This is likely to lead to overtaxed elections officials back at the county clerk's office, giving out incorrect, or incorrectly interpreted information about what to do.

There was also no mention of HAVA-tagged voters, those who registered by mail without providing any ID. The trainer was careful to say that lack of ID on a provisional ballot envelope would not necessarily invalidate that ballot. That's true, if there's enough existing registration info back at the elections office. But if there's not, if someone did need ID, the vote won't be counted. People who could have produced ID, but weren't told it was necessary, will have their ballots invalidated.

Here's the rub. The election commission is trying, desperately, to keep election judges from having to defend anything. It's not the judges' job to decide what provisional ballots will get counted, and which ones won't. But this is leading them to have judges avoid making any judgments at all, or give any advice at all about what ID may be necessary to help a provisional ballot count. It's a recipe for confusion and a gaping hole for a lawsuit. The outcome of that lawsuit may very well be to count all provisional ballots, legitimate or not.

So It Begins

2004-10-29T13:08:00.000-06:00

Republicans have filed a complaint that election workers in largely Democratic Pueblo are permitting electioneering and failing to ask for ID. Pueblo County Clerk Chris Munoz has already been in hot water for simultaneously serving as the treasurer for a local candidate's campaign.

Ms. Munoz asserts that she doesn't believe workers weren't asking for ID, because some of these judges have been around for years. Except that the ID requirement is new, and experienced judges frequently don't assimilate new procedures.

Allowing campaign buttons and clothing inside the polling place is against the law. But not asking for ID is worse. Given the reports of multiple registrations, of people registered in multiple counties, of felons being registered, the ID requirement is one of the few safeguards we have. If election judges are willing to violate their oaths and not enforce the requirement, there's almost nothing standing between organized vote fraud and a stolen election.

Basic Economics

2004-10-29T11:10:00.000-06:00

On this, the 75th Anniversary of the great stock market crash, the Denver Post ran two stories on the event - one from the AP, and one on the local reaction at the time. Both stories repeat the myth that the stock market crash caused the Great Depression. At the end, they get around to mentioning that the Fed raised interest rates, making things worse. Even then, they only get half the story.

The stock market crash was caused by a speculative bubble, but a market decline was inevitable. The economy had already begun to go into recession. The stock market bubble was poised to be popped, but the Great Depression was almost completely a result of mismanagement by the Government. Not only did they raise interest rates, they raised tariffs, and the Fed refused to help ease a liquidity crisis as it had so many times in the past.

Anyone who wants to write about the depression should be required by his editor to read Milton Friedman's Free to Choose, which covers this in depth. The question here isn't what could have been done to ease the Depression - they are many answers to that - it's that the Stock Market Crash didn't cause it in the first place.

Party of Hate

2004-10-29T10:49:00.000-06:00

Yesterday, driving to the Election Judge training, I stopped at 8th and Emerson, east of downtown. On the back of one of the stop signs, someone had spray-painted, "Kill Bush".

One data point isn't much, and not for a moment do I think the Democratic Party had anything to do with this. But I've been driving around, glancing at yard signs and bumper stickers, and even graffiti for month. I have seen protest signs equating the Israeli flag with with swastika, and one - one - Bush sign defaced. (I bet I know who those people are voting for.) I have seen reports of other, but I guess a defaced sign makes a worse statement than a stolen sign.

But not once have I seen anything remotely approaching "Kill Kerry." Nothing, nothing suggesting physical violence against a candidate or his party or even his union thugs.

This is not rational. Peter Beinart notwithstanding, it doesn't even have rational roots. And, it's completely one-sided.

Best Case Scenario

2004-10-28T06:33:00.000-06:00

I have believed for some time that it is important that Israel finish the security fence as quickly as possible. In the Middle East, nothing succeeds like facts on the ground. And while we'd all like to have the chance to say a Shehecheyanu as quickly as possible, Arafat might help Israel most by recovering. After the succession struggle has already started, of course.

Whether or not the circling vultures would let that happen is another story. Certainly those with the greatest interest in seeing him linger would also be those in the worst position to see that it happened.

Our Dinner with Hugh

2004-10-28T06:13:00.000-06:00

Last night, members of the Rocky Mountain Alliance had the great pleasure of dining with Hugh Hewitt, courtesy of the Outback Steakhouses of Aurora and East Aurora. Michael, Richard, Ben, Jim, Guy, Clay, Jonathan, Jared, Bob, and I all had a terrific time.

I can verify what the Northern Alliance guys have been saying - Hugh is very generous, and sincerely concerned with success of the conservative blogosphere as a corrective to the MSM. And, we would like to think, for the RMA in particular. He sounds like the Happy Warrior on the show, because he actually is one.

Arafat Still Not Dead

2004-10-27T22:24:00.000-06:00

So when I got to the Outback Steakhouse in Aurora, to meet with Hugh Hewitt and the rest of the Rocky Mountain Alliance, the first question they asked was whether or not we'd be able to toast the death of Yasser Arafat. No, I said, but I did get to tell the joke about Arafat dying on a Jewish holiday.

Soon. Not yet, but not long.

Of course, Arafat never bothered to groom a successor, and given his Stalinesque tendencies, that's probably just as well for the successors. The problem now is the problem common to all thugocracies: when the head thug dies, the new leader is the
one who settles all family business the fastest. So long as he doesn't go to the meeting in Gaza, on al-Tessio's territory, where he'll be safe.

Everything you hear is rumor," said Gazi Hanania, deputy speaker of the legislature. "President Arafat is sleeping."

Sure, and so is the parrot. When Arafat actually does pass on, die, move along, cease to be, become an ex-Arafat, what passes for Palestinian leadership is going to have to staple his feet to a forklift and parade him around until things settle down.

Right now, everyone's predicting a bloodbath, and I suppose that's the way to bet. There are half a dozen factions who've been sharpening their knives, waiting for this moment, and there's a tremendous first-mover competitive advantage to be had here.

Still, there's some hope this thing could be settled more quickly than we think. Moving quickly, and intelligently, and not too quickly, takes organization, which is one thing that Hamas has in increasingly short supply. Most of it has been sandblasted off of Gaza streets and sidewalks, and what's left has become the Terrorists that Dare Not Speak Their Names. So there's some reason to hope that the non-Islamist irredentist Arabs will take over, rather than the Islamists.

That's the good news. The bad news is that we've seen this film before. Everyone knew Chernenko was a placeholder, especially when the voting booth looked suspiciously like his hospital room. But Andropov was a different story. If all it takes is a tailored suit and some white wine to make some people forget that you've spent you're entire career destabilizing legitimate governments around the world, there should be lots of candidates for the job.

A quick transition to someone who's Not Arafat could stall Israel's plans short of actual victory. Whoever comes out is bound to be an unknown quantity, and the calls for Israel to stop its "provocations" long enough to give the new guy a chance to actually prove his murderous intentions. The Europeans won't believe it, but they'll be speaking to enough people who will, even within Israel.

That wasn't the plan. The plan was for Israel to finish the fence, and tell the Palestinians to come back when they stopped killing each other long enough to come up for air.

Sharon has had defeat snatched from the jaws of victory so many times before. In Sinai. In Beirut. Semi-responsible Palestinians have been calling for Arafat to step aside for a while now. Wouldn't is be ironic if he had finally found a way to elude Sharon one last time?

Gay Marriage

2004-10-27T07:17:00.000-06:00

I have tended to avoid the topic of gay marriage in this space. In the first place, my personal opinions on the matter are pretty much fixed by virtue of my being an Orthodox Jew: marriage simply cannot be anything other than between one man and one woman. And for me, that's about where it ends. I know how I'd vote on a referendum, and how much I'd try to punish Ken Gordon or Andrew "The Tsar" Romanoff if they tried to push is through the General Assembly. But I can't expect that convince many people; Orthodox Jews will be pretty much with me, anyone else indifferent to such argument, if you can even call it that.

More, I doubt the usefulness of such a debate, testimony to the destructive power of Roe v. Wade, and a generation of activist, liberal judges. They went to law school in the 60s, and saw a couple of decades laboring in law firms not as training to understand the law, but as the dues they paid on the way to power. Power, naturally, over you and me. The Massachusetts Supreme Court, or rather, enough members of it to play bridge, can issue a single ruling whose logical conclusion is the equivalent of a dictat from the Sultan. Until we begin to solve that problem, and its solution will take a generation, debating certain social issues seems a little pointless. (David Frum, in his superb book on the 70s, posits that voting has declined because it has mattered less. Judges and bureaucrats do not feel bound to respect even majorities of 80% and 90%.)

There is one argument, though, proposed by Glenn Reynolds and Andrew Sullivan, that deserves to be answered: the notion that a small number of people, say, 2-3% of the population, cannot threaten a major institution. There is, in fact, no reason at all why a small group of people can't force us to rethink and question social structures. I can think of two examples, both starting out with noble and necessary goals, both turning into national nightmares.

First, there is no doubt in my mind that a large part of the secularization of social life comes from a desire to more fully integrate religious minorities, especially Jews, into public life. I am old enough to remember being excused from 4th grade music class when December came around, and the class sang Christmas carols. I can remember mouthing the words to "Come, All Ye Faithful" at the Cub Scout Christmas pageant. Neither of these things would be thinkable now. And I'm not that old.

But what started as an attempt to make a non-denominational civic religion, in keeping with the Founders' intention, has morphed into a legal war against religion. The Founders didn't specify the nature of the God in Whom We Trust; but they put it on the coins, just the same. I was not thrilled at Greeley or at Fiddler's Green being asked to pray in the name of a deity in whom I do not believe. But I was uncomfortable not at all when the pastor at Red Rocks made the invocation. Listen to Dennis Prager for a few days, and you'll get the distinction.

The other example is poverty. Frum writes:

In 1980, there were 27 million poor people in America, or about 12.4% of the population, approximately the same proportion as in 1965. The level of poverty in the United States had not changed much over those 15 years, but its character had. Poverty, before 1960 mostly rural and white, became urban and nonwhite. Almost 70% of America's poor lived in metropolitan areas in 1980....This "underclass" - a term originally coined by the Swedish economist Gunnar Myrdal and popularized in a 1982 by journalist Ken Auletta - tallied perhaps 2.5 million souls nationwide, almost all of them black or Hispanic. Two and a half million people is a small proportion of the total American population. But this relatively miniscule population challenged the country's ideals of equal citizenship and equal human potential more radically than the tens of millions of unemployed in the 1930s had ever done.

The analogies aren't perfect. Each situation is unique. But the notion that a small part of the population can't challenge the way we think about ourselves and our society, even its most important institutions, is clearly untrue. Marriage is a public institution, conferring a publicly recognized status on its members. It confers ancillary rights of inheritance, of surrogate life-and-death choices, of adoption, of finances, of birth, and of family.

At a practical level, I don't see where civil unions, on this basis, are any better a solution that "marriage," since they reproduce all of the above effects without the word. In each of the above cases, we started by making common-sense changes (not requiring Jewish kids to say the Lord's Prayer, for instance), and extended them to the ridiculous (lifetime membership on the welfare rolls). The virtue of civil unions is that if we come up with any further "innovations," we don't need to extend them to the rest of existing marriages, but we can limit them to the civil unions.

But I do see where, before we go throwing the full weight of Law and Society behind another radical social experiment, we might want to think about it a little.

Especially since it's 2-3% of the population.

Light Blogging Today

2004-10-26T14:13:00.000-06:00

Between schoolwork and real work, there's going to be light blogging today. See you tomorrow.

20 Years Later

2004-10-26T01:23:00.000-06:00

During the 1984 campaign, one of Walter Mondale's themes was that it was "time for a change." Ronald Reagan reminded America that, "we are the change," before recounting the Carter/Mondale administration's many failures.

Today, John Kerry looks for Europe to come to the rescue, like the cavalry. President Bush would do well to remind the country that, "we are the cavalry."

The President in Greeley

2004-10-25T19:03:00.000-06:00

I had the pleasure of attending the President’s rally in Greeley this morning, courtesy of the campaign and its generous issuance of press credentials to the RMA. (Richard also took advantage of the offer. He needs a camera. I need a digital camera. Hmmm. Maybe we need an RMA camera fund...) The site was the Island Grove Park, in the Events Center. It’s a smallish venue: about 8000 people, although it was probably the largest venue in Greeley. (The University of Northern Colorado stadium holds only about 7000). Last time I was here was in 2000 for the Greeley Dog show. The configuration is different for a dog-and-pony show.

It's appropriate that the President was speaking in Greeley. The town is named for Horace Greeley, whose rapidly-changing position on the Civil War mirrors that of the President's opponent. He pushed for vigorous prosecution of the war, and then got mixed up in an unauthorized peace mission in 1864. He opposed the President's re-election until September of 1864, after the Atlanta and Petersburg military victories.

A photographer next to me had heard that at the Kerry rally in Pueblo, there were 2000 people outside with 15 minutes to go, and they shut down the metal detectors. So I guess it’s true, the Democrats really are softer on security.

The warm-up music this time was oldies rock rather than country. “Great Balls o’ Fire” and a couple other up-tempo numbers to start, and then – oddly – “We’ve Lost that Lovin’ Feelin’.”

Wayne Allard, every inch the veterinarian, hosted the event. Fourth District Congressman Marilyn Musgrave spoke, as did Pete Coors, who stayed late to sign autographs and have his picture taken. He seemed to love every minute of it, and I think he’s finally realizing that despite all the work, the campaign is to be savored, not resented.

The invocation was a little weird, and a little over-the-top. I can completely understand the religious sensibility that God has a hand in choosing our leaders, and certainly at a Republican event, the pastor would thank Him for sending us the man we’re trying to get re-elected. The pastor also made it clear that while he believed that George Bush was the man to vote for, that whoever was elected would be, in some sense, the leader that God had chosen for us, and that we should follow him. Some could be forgiven, though, for believing that the pastor was calling Bush God’s representative, or something like that, although it looked like he was a little too eager to hear that. I thought he stayed this side of that sort of nuttiness, but it looked like he had to work at it a little.

The intros finished earlier than planned, so we were left with this large, ponderous, “Thus Spake Zarathustra” movie soundtrack kind of music that ran through about 7 ½ times. At first I thought it might be from Apollo 13, but I needed to make it clear that no, I was absolutely not sure that it actually was from Apollo 13. The last thing I needed was to have some rumor I started end up in the paper.

Today’s Surprise Guest was none other than Rudy Giuliani. Talk about a rock star. Although Republicans once again showed their difficulties with rhythm, as an attempt to chant “Rudy” ended up sounding like booing. And this time, Laura Bush was there as the Family Member, though according to the President, she was probably happy she didn’t have to speak.

The President’s speech was almost entirely about the war, and much sharper on that. Very little on terrorism. But it was sharper, more clearly defined than I had heard before. He finally got around to countering Kerry’s Tora Bora lie, and pointed out that Kerry had supported both the campaign and the way it was fought at the time.

He noted that Kerry had said that by invading Iraq, we had created more terrorists. “Senator Kerry has it wrong. You don’t create terrorists by fighting them. You defeat terrorists by fighting them!” When he got to the part about turning Iraq from an adversary into an ally, it sounded to me like he was talking about crushing vermin with the very rock they had been hiding under.

Also went after Kerry’s historical aversion to a robust foreign policy. Kerry opposed aid to the Contras, the Pershings in Europe, and voted against weapons systems that we’re now using to fight terror. “History has shown that Senator Kerry was wrong, and Ronald Reagan was right [I’ll bet that name didn’t get a cheer like today’s in Pueblo –ed.]. When former President Bush,” assembled the coalition to oust Saddam from Kuwait, Senator Kerry voted against it. “History has shown that Senator Kerry was wrong, and that former President Bush [yes, that’s how he referred to his father –ed.] was right. After the first World Trade Center bombing, Senator Kerry called for intelligence cuts so drastic that even his colleague Senator Kennedy couldn’t support them. History has shown that Senator Kerry was wrong (long pause), and, let’s give him his due (laughter), Senator Kennedy was right [delivered with obvious relish to great laughter –ed.].”

He had the crowd laughing with him now, and went for the jugular. “Senator Kerry voted to authorize the use of force against Saddam Hussein, and then criticized me for…using force against Saddam Hussein. Hours after saying that it would be ‘irresponsible’ to vote against the troops, he voted against them….History has shown that Senator Kerry was right, and then wrong, and then briefly right again, and then wrong.” (Place erupts.)

He continues to use Dennis Prager’s line about other occupations that the terrorists might have taken up, had we not been so rude as to defend ourselves.

The second half of the speech was mostly held over from the previous stump speech, the one with a domestic issues section. But it was much more powerful, much more meaningful, with the new first half.

I can’t tell you how completely, utterly, like, totally cool it was to have press access, and to get to sit with the rest of the local press. The Greeley Tribune and other local papers from Loveland and Ft. Collins were, of course, wildly over-represented, and they couldn’t possibly have been nicer to me, or to the staff. I heard one woman remark, as we went through security, “no wonder people hate dealing with the press. Some of them really are jerks.” At least I think she said “jerks.”

One reporter from one of the northern Colorado papers made clear the relationship between the mainstream traditional press and the blogs. She asked the name of my blog, and whether it was pro-Bush. When I said, “yes,” she said that she’d have to be careful then about what she said. I reassured her that I wasn’t there to campaign, and she did let me know that she thought Kerry was much more liberal then he pretended to be. Still, she clearly saw, in this post-CBS era, blogs as a sort of meta-media, reporting not only on the event, but also on the media itself.

I had the pleasure of sitting next to Mike Littwin of the Rocky. Now I have my political differences with the man. There are times when he writes as though no other interpretation of events were possible. But he remembered the emails about his Red/Blue/Battleground series we had exchanged, and we got to talking about the Old Country. It turns out he graduated from Newport News High School in 1966, 13 years after my father did. He also went to U.Va., graduating in 1970. We avoided talking about politics and writing, and I suspect he was pleased to have a respite.

I will say that while I expect his column comparing the Pueblo and Greeley rallies to be pro-Kerry, I don’t expect it to be a hatchet job. He was the one who talked a fellow reporter down from his conviction that the pastor was playing Pope to the President’s Charlemagne.

This time, I have pictures. Although the lighting was terrible, and I was stuck with the long lens and 100-speed film I had brought from home.

Here's Senator Allard. He's a fine man and a good Senator, but I'd be very careful about booking him as an after-dinner speaker:

Congressman Marilyn Musgrave:

And who's that next to the Representative? Why yes! Those of you with very good eyesight may squint a little and make out former Representative Bob Schaefer:

And The Man, himself:

The Siege Begins

2004-10-24T23:19:00.000-06:00

Notes to neighborhood campaign workers:

1 - We have already voted

2 - I am grouchy when I am woken up

3 - I am extraordinarily grouchy when I am woken up from a Shabbat nap

We had an out-of-town guest over for Shabbat lunch, and when I finally settled down for a nap, the doorbell rang. The dog, who was already a little wound up from being relegated to the basement during lunch, and who had started anticipating his afternoon walk, went ballistic.

Since they rang the doorbell, the electric doorbell, on Shabbat, I was pretty sure it wasn't any of my friends from shul, so I would have been content to let them leave whatever literature they had, and go away. Sage the Dog had other ideas. No! He barked, they must be driven away, so that they shall never return!

*Sigh*

Her (and her daughter, given the Great Privilege of Holding the Clipboard): "Hi, I'm looking for Susan Sharf."

Me: "Um, yes, what for?"

Her: "Well, we're with the unaffiliated group MoveOn.org"

Me (restraining myself): "And?" (Unspoken: yes, you're unaffiliated like my dog is a chihuahua. Right, Susie's a registered Democrat.)

Me (recovering): "She can't really come to the door right not."

Her: "When would be a good time to come back?"

Me (thinking): "After I have the trap door installed under the Welcome Mat, leading to the dungeon with the alligators and hungry wolves."

Me (for real): "Ah, yes, actually, she's already voted."

Her: "Do you know how she voted?"

Remember, this is in front of a house with a Coors for Senate sign and a Bush/Cheney 04 sign.

Me: "That would be our business."

"How did she vote?" How did she vote? I know this woman was old enough to have a daughter old enough to carry the clipboard. But I'm sure if she thinks way back to the dark ages when she was in grade school, she remembers folding the little piece of paper in class elections, so nobody would see that she didn't vote for her best friend, but instead voted for the cute guy in 4th row. Or she could go down to King Sooper and ask the election judge why the voting booth has curtains.

I have never been asked how I voted, much less how someone else voted.

Later in the evening, after Shabbat ended, Greg Golyansky came by. Mr. Golyansky is running as a Republican against the Permanent Colorado House Minority Tsar Andrew Romanoff. There's something delicious about a Republican Jew running against a man named Romanoff for political office. Of course, he's got no chance in hell of winning in this district, but it was clever to nominate a Former Soviet Unionik here, too.

And now, we have another yard sign.

Welcome Instapundit Readers!

2004-10-24T20:59:00.000-06:00

While you're here, take a look around the vote fraud postings (amongst others). And I won't miss the chance to plug my radio appearance this Thursday on Lea Live here in Colorado. You can listen at 11:00 AM Eastern, 9:00 AM Mountain at KFKA on October 28.

And if any of you is looking for a web programmer, now you know where to find one.

Vote Tenanbaum! Vote Bowles! Vote Both!

2004-10-24T18:31:00.000-06:00

The Charlotte Observer is reporting that up to 60,000 people may have found it too difficult to choose just one Carolina to vote in, so they picked both. While the South Carolina race isn't sewn up, the North Carolina race is considered much closer. Depending on how much time people have during the day, this might lead to voters casting ballots in both states, or one of their choice. (Alarmingly, North Carolina doesn't want to discourage voters by asking them to show ID at the polls, while South Carolina does ask for ID.)

I understand that campaigns need to strategically and tactically allocate resources. I just hadn't realized that voters were one of those resources.

About That Post Endorsement

2004-10-24T14:54:00.000-06:00

While it's got K-Lo all worked up, it looks to me like a ticket-splitting endorsement. The basis of the endorsement is entirely Bush's assertiveness on terrorism, and his willingness to use force without raising his hand and asking for a hall pass in French and German. On every other issue, including his handling of Iraq, taxes, judicial nominations, "reaching out to Democrats," everything, the Post is critical of the President.

My guess is that this is an endorsement more calculated to help Ken Salazar than George W. Bush.

Asymmetric Warfare

2004-10-24T13:37:00.000-06:00

One of the reasons that Democratic whining and fear-mongering about disenfranchisement is so much more effective that Republican worries about vote fraud is that the victim in one case is clear, while both the victim and perpetrator in the other are hard to identify.

In order to commit disenfranchisement, really commit disenfranchisement, some specific individual needs to be refused his ability to vote. That individual can be identified, and held up as a specific victim. More importantly, those "pre-emptive strikes" can be effective, because even if the presumed victim is a class, or hypothetical, any one of us can imagine ourselves as being turned away, and how outraged we would be. Bill Johnson apparently has retained an entire army of attorneys based on just such a fantasy.

The flip-side is much harder for most of us to personalize. In an election with millions of voters, we see the damage from one fraudulent vote as being, in some sense, distributed among the entire voting population. If that fraudulent vote is for Kerry, then sure, some Bush voter has had his vote canceled out, but which one? Surely not all of us, and surely not any one in particular. At the same time, the very nature of vote fraud conceals the perpetrator, since he needs to either invent a non-existant identity, or steal someone else's, in order to commit his crime. The inability to identify either the victim or the criminal is one of the reasons that vote fraud has received so little attention compared to intimidation or disenfranchisement.

This asymmetry extends to other areas of public policy. I can point to specific jobs lost to competition; I can't point to specific jobs created by free trade. It was only when those opposed to minority set-asides and racial quotas were able to produce specfic victims that they were able to start winning a few court decisions. Environmentalists have the hardest time imposing regulation where specific ecnomic victims can be found, but all too often the costs of regulation are distributed across an entire inustry or economic sector.

Fingerprinting and photo-taking are illegal at the polls. Some of the ID required barely qualifies as ID at all. Election judges will need astounding memories to recognize the faces of people foolish enough to try to vote twice in the same precinct. While someone, some individual being turned away, has immediate sympathy and an immediate complaint. The only way to redress this asymmetry in the public mind is to relentlessly push the issue.

Lawsuit? What Lawsuit?

2004-10-24T13:34:00.000-06:00

If ever there were proof that newsrooms could maintain separate editorial policies under a joint operating agreement, this is it. A day after the Post published a hit piece on Secretary of State Donetta Davidson (carefully identifying all the Republicans involved, naturally), the Rocky runs an article full of bi-partisan love.

The Post continues its campaign against Ms. Davidson today, blaming her for inconsistent judge training. (Lawyers for Bush take note: this is little more than preparing the ground for a 14th Amendment Equal Protection lawsuit.) The fact is, federal meddling in what should be a state process, and lawsuits and fear of lawsuits, have combined to take what used to be a straightforward administrative post and turn it into the focus of hothouse political pressure.

I've been critical of Secretary Davidson when appropriate. She had no business providing for same-day registration, and probably should have pushed for a special prosecutor for the existing voter registration fraud cases. But to run an article about how late in the day it is to be figuring out the rules, while barely mentioning a lawsuit that cost the state two weeks of preparation with less than a month to go, is just irresponsible.

Done for the Day

2004-10-24T13:09:00.000-06:00

Tomorrow, I'll be headed up to cover the President's appearance in Greeley, and in the meantime, I'm drowning in schoolwork. So that's it for the day.

Probably.

Colorado "Pre-Emptive Strikes"

2004-10-24T10:56:00.000-06:00

The Post runs a report about former election judges turned into hectorers poll watchers.

Lucero trained Figel and two other women to be poll monitors Saturday. Volunteers, several bilingual, will be posted outside the polls on Election Day in Colorado precincts heavily populated by Latinos and African-Americans - making sure that each and every voter casts a ballot.

The People for the American Way Foundation has organized Election Protection, a coalition of various civil rights groups and others, to prevent voter disenfranchisement.

"It's just unconscionable that in the US of A that we have to go through this process," Figel said. "We live in a land of liberty, and people are being intimidated. I'm still shaking my head."

So far, the only voter intimidation seems to be by Kerry voters in Florida. When Colorado Secretary of State issued her initial set of rules for balloting, the Post was careful to assert that Colorado had no history of voter fraud. They fail to observe that the state has no history of voter intimidation.

Another nonpartisan voter advocacy group, Fair Vote Colorado, will staff as many precincts as possible with volunteers to field voter questions and solve problems as they arise at the polls.

"Non-partisan?" There they go again. Election Protection is run by People for the American Way. Fair Vote Colorado is a spinoff of the Bighorn Center, whose founder, Rutt Bridges, ran for the Democratic nomination for Senate before Ken Salazar entered the race. These organizations are about as non-partisan as NutraSweet is natural.

In fact, this is little more than the "pre-emptive" strike the Democratic poll worker manual has promised. Given the ethnic demographics of Colorado, an appeal of this sort is likely to show more results in the Hispanic community than among blacks. This is more than the normal scare and intimidation tactics, aimed at simultaneously energizing the base and undermining the law. It is also another instance of using the fear of lawsuits over "disparate impact" to avoid confronting the distortions that a large illegal immigrant population pose.

Hell Freezes Over

2004-10-24T10:11:00.000-06:00

Both Denver papers have now endorsed President Bush for re-election. Of course, the Post's endorsement is mostly damning with faint praise, but it comes down to leadership and decisiveness in the war on terror.

Yet, in the context of Nov. 2, it isn't sensible to assess the state of our union in easily definable ways. Ours is an era in which security matters most, and national security is the preeminent duty of the next president.

On Sept. 11, 2001, this country accepted a great challenge - to inflict justice on terrorists who would attack us and to take every reasonable step to protect our homeland. The task has been pursued with dogged resolution, and we think President Bush is best suited to continue the fight.

In making this endorsement, we don't see that American politics need to be so polarized. Just for the record, we consider both Bush and Kerry qualified to be president, and we don't think the world will come to an end if voters turn to the Democrat.

The call for less polarization would carry more weight if it included a recognition that it's been Democrats and their union thugs that have been shooting up Republican offices all over the country. Still, if their thinking represents any significant fraction of Colorado Democrats, we can pretty much write off Colorado as a swing state. It's certainly got to be a little bitter for Kerry, after his reverse-coattail visit to Pueblo yesterday.

Of course, we'll pass over the fact that both papers have also endorsed Ken Salazar.

Election Judge Law

2004-10-22T14:10:00.000-06:00

A couple of readers have been worrying that local election officials might try to stack the ranks of election judges with Democrats. Presumably such individuals would be more likely to break down and let people vote without proper ID, etc. Or they might be more persuded by argument, both subtle and not, from Democratic poll watchers. I don't think this is an issue.

Colorado Law is pretty clear on this point:

1-6-109. Party affiliation of election judges in partisan elections.

(1) For partisan elections in precincts that have an even number of election judges, each major political party is entitled to one-half of the number of election judges.

(2) For partisan elections in precincts that have an odd number of election judges, one major political party is entitled to the extra election judge in one-half of the precincts, as determined by the county clerk and recorder, and the other major political party is entitled to the extra election judge in the other one-half of the precincts, as determined by the county clerk and recorder.

(3) If an odd number of precincts exist, the county clerk and recorder shall determine which major political party is entitled to any extra election judge. The county clerk and recorder shall make this determination either by mutual agreement of both of the major political parties or, if the two major political parties cannot agree, by lot.

and

1-6-111. Number of election judges.

(1) For partisan elections, the county clerk and recorder shall appoint at least three election judges to serve as polling place judges for each precinct to perform the designated functions, one of whom may be a student election judge appointed pursuant to the provisions of section 1-6-101 (7). In each precinct, notwithstanding any other provision of this article and subject to the availability of election judges who meet the affiliation requirements of section 1-6-109, of the election judges appointed to serve as polling place judges pursuant to the provisions of this subsection (1), there shall be at least one election judge from each major political party who is not a student election judge.

(2) (Deleted by amendment, L. 98, p. 580, § 10, effective April 30, 1998.)

(3) When two election judges who are not of the same political affiliation are present at the polls, voting may proceed. (Emphasis added -ed.)

I suppose a whole host of, say Democrats could be induced to change their party affiliation, to stack the polls with election judges working under false colors, but the number of people required to be "in" on such a conspiracy would be unsupportable. People talk.

Of course, there's also no reason the process couldn't work the other way in some places, with Republican election judges wrongly disenfranchising some voters.

Radio Change

2004-10-22T11:20:00.000-06:00

My appearance on Lea Live has been changed from next Friday to Thursday, October 28. That's ok. For finance guys, October 29 has a bad ring to it, anyway. I'll be on starting at the top of the show, and running for about 40 minutes, it seems. And, as always, Radio Kafka will be streaming.

Preaching to the Converted

2004-10-22T10:28:00.000-06:00

Deacon over at Powerline notes with satisfaction that "The Jewish Press, America's largest Jewish newspaper, has endorsed President Bush." While this is certainly good news, it's really the equivalent of a New York Catholic newspaper endorsing John Kennedy in 1960.

The Jewish Press is the largest paper, but they cater almost exclusively to a New York Orthodox audience. (The latest edition had a Denver birth announcement listed under the "West Coast Bureau.") Orthodox Jews in New York are likely to vote heavily for Bush, anyway. They opposed Hillary in large numbers, remain big Giuliani fans, and through their contacts with Israel, are more aware of the day-to-day effects of Islamic terrorism.

The Press also tends to have very sensationalistic headlines, and is hard to take seriously as a reporter on national and international politics. I have noticed a distinct tendency to give their readership what it wants, shall we say. That this makes it a more ham-handed right-wing version of the New York Times doesn't make it any better.

Those who are more leftish aren't likely to be reading the Press, anyway. Now, if the Forward came out for Bush, that would be progress!

Beware of Poll Watchers

2004-10-22T09:25:00.000-06:00

Having seen election judge intimidation up close in Florida, Secretary of State Davidson is taking steps to make sure we'll be able to do our jobs on November 2. For instance, she made it clear that only one poll watcher per precinct will be allowed, making it much harder to tag-team beleaguered poll workers who have been trying to spell "S-as-in-Sam-H-A-R-F-as-in-Frank" all day.

One of the more interesting decisions yet to be made is about cell phones. Right now, ringers need to be set to vibrate, and cell phones with recorders or cameras won't be allowed in the polls at all, to prevent people from upload picture to the Master Face Database down at party headquarters. There's a chance that cell phones might not be allowed at all.

That would probably be a good idea, although I'm sure Common Cause would file a lawsuit charging that their free speech rights were being violated. (Common Cause has the least to worry about. They barely have a time-delay between thought and speech.) But it would prevent poll watchers from organizing campaign activities from inside the polling place, as has happened in other places.

On the whole, though, this looks like a good set of rules.

President Bush to Visit Greeley

2004-10-21T10:23:00.000-06:00

President Bush will visit Greeley next Monday. The Greeley Tribune thinks that the 4th District Representative Marilyn Musgrave may be in trouble, but that's generally been a pretty safe seat. The area is solidly Red, and was instrumental in electing Governor Owens in 1998. The Public Opinion Strategies poll had Coors leading on the plains, too, so this looks like GOTV appearance, further designed to help Coors.

Precinct Voting

2004-10-21T09:28:00.000-06:00

With Colorado and Florida state courts upholding rules that disqualify (to varying degrees) ballots cast in the wrong precint, and a federal court in Michigan requiring those ballots to be counted, is it possible that we're headed for another Supreme Court decision on this issue?

UPDATE: Kerry Spot is reporting that a Federal court in Florida has disqualified ballots cast in the wrong precinct, making a Supreme Court resolution more thinkable. One would hope that they would just settle the HAVA question and leave it at that. But Bush v. Gore showed that the Court is distressingly more comfortable now talking in Constitutional terms than statutory ones.

Red Rocks go Red

2004-10-21T07:36:00.000-06:00

A new Denver Post poll confirms that President Bush has moved decisively, but not conclusively ahead here in Colorado as Republicans "come home." (Victor Borge would probably ask where they went? And is that why the newspapers were piling up?) The President is up 49-43, but while the article says "likely voters," the graphic says "registered voters." This confirms and earlier POS poll that had the President up by five.

As it turns out, Vice-President Cheney will be in Grand Junction on Saturday, the same day John Kerry will be in Pueblo. While the Democrats are trying to spin this to mean that the state really is still a toss-up, my guess is that Kerry's visit is designed to help Kerry, while Cheney's visit is designed to help Pete Coors and Walcher in the 3rd. Polls have shown the Salazars running well in the Western Slope, and the Veep probably is making a stopover to lend some coattails.

I Heff a Plen...

2004-10-20T13:12:00.000-06:00

The French Candidate's Plan for Iran has already been rejected by the mullahs:

On the 18th of September, Iran was called to halt its uranium enrichment activities immediately and permanently in a decision by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors. Iran rejected the demand and claimed that its nuclear activities, including uranium enrichment designed to produce a nuclear fuel cycle, are anchored in the international treaties and regulations.(1)

Recently, the three European countries, France, Germany, and the UK, initiated (in the talks between the EU and Iran in the past two years) a new proposal where nuclear fuel for peaceful purposes would be provided to Iran by European countries as part of an incentive package. Iran principally refused the offer. In the next few days, the three foreign ministers of France, Germany, and the UK are expected to arrive in Tehran for talks, in which they will officially submit the offer....

The Iranian foreign minister's spokesperson, Hamid Reza Asefi rejected the offer, stating: "[this is a question of] the preservation of our inalienable right [to pursue Uranium enrichment activities]... the Europeans will have to accept the fact that they cannot force Iran to do [whatever they want]." Iran claims that it is determined to achieve independent nuclear fuel cycle capabilities and that it cannot be swayed from this right.

So the presumed subjects of his plans for Iraq and Iran have already rejected his proposals.

More Voters Than Citizens

2004-10-20T13:00:00.000-06:00

Another good reason for requiring ID at the polls. Apparently, some county clerks have been, er, less than diligent in purging their voter rolls. As a result, some jurisdictions have more registered voters than the 2003 Census estimate of the voting-age population. About 55,000 appear to be registered more than once, many times in multiple counties. Some registered voters have either moved away died.

While the ID requirements makes it harder to vote regularly, there's nothing that keeps someone from voting provisionally as one of these improperly registered voters without ID. The standard for counting a provisional ballot is that the person is registered; they are assumed, after the fact, to be properly registered.

Nobody wants to ask this question, but how many of these new registrants might not actually be citizens?

He's No Curt Schilling

2004-10-20T10:23:00.000-06:00

This morning, while I was walking the dog around scenic Crestmoor Park, I saw a woman jogging, coming towards me, pushing one of the jogging strollers, with a small dog on the other end of a leash. The stroller was empty.

"I think you lost somebody," I said.

"No, the stroller's for him," she said, pointing to the dog. "He just had knee surgery and he can only go around the park."

Knee surgery. The dog was so short, he barely had knees. It was all I could to keep from asking how long he'd be on the DL, how his rehab was going, and whether or not he could go Saturday if we needed him.

Perspective, people, perspective.

I Ran Away From John Kerry, Before I Ran With Him

2004-10-20T09:22:00.000-06:00

John Kerry and Ken Salazar will finally share the same stage, after weeks of taunting from the Coors camp about their never having met. The event looks like a sandwiched-in kind of thing, on the way from Reno to Las Cruces, NM. Pueblo is heavily hispanic, and this looks like an attempt to use Salazar to shore up Kerry, without unduly damaging Salazar. Salazar, obviously, runs far ahead of Kerry among hispanics.

Cross-Posted at Salazar v. Coors.

Why I Love Baseball

2004-10-19T23:46:00.000-06:00

Aside from the statistics, that is.

When that count went full, and the game ended as it should have, with the batter swinging, not looking, what a thrill to realize that the series wasn't over yet. Football fans and ex-players like to make fun of tubby baseball players like Cecil Fielder. There's not one concussion-riddled quarterback who's ever shown more raw physical courage than Curt Schilling did tonight. Every step was painful, but it probably just made him look more menacing.

Just when it looked like this postseason was going into the toilet, we've been rescued by three fantastic days of baseball. The Red Saux and Yankees have play three tremendous games, bringing the Red Saux once again to the point of, but likely not past, the brink of history. I've seen great teams "caught in the riptide," as Tom Boswell wrote of the 1979 Orioles. The Yankees have that look.

Over in the National League, the Cardinals are probably giving Tony LaRussa nightmares about his 1983 White Sox. That team won the American League West by 20 games, only to do an el foldo and lose the ALCS 3-1 to eventual World Series Champions Baltimore Orioles.

For my money, the greatest post-season as a whole is still 1986. The Red Sox came from down 3 games to 1 to beat the Angels, including Dave Henderson's Game 5 heroics. The Astros and Mets played a 6-game set, the sixth game going 16 innings, with each team getting runs in both the 14th and the 16th. The 6th game had a 7th-game feel to it, since the unhittable Mike Scott would have gone for Houston in Game 7. While we all remember Game 6 of the World Series, we forget that the Saux started out with a 3-0 lead after one inning of Game 7, and brought the tying run to the plate late in the game, too.

Who says baseball is boring?

More Tracking Polls You Shouldn't Believe

2004-10-19T15:57:00.000-06:00

The Battleground Poll shows some interesting numbers over the course of the last week. The third debate seems not only to have helped Bush on domestic issues, but also to have reassured them on Iraq and terrorism. On most questions, we're back where we were before the debates, although the "vote for" number has yet to catch up.

The Battleground poll is run daily, but released weekly, on Monday, running through the prior Thursday. It's greatest use now is to confirm (or not) the trends that seem to be showing up in other polling data.

Krugman On the Draft

2004-10-19T09:57:00.000-06:00

Paul Krugman has decided to help mainstream the draft scare. Leave aside the fact that nobody wants a draft, that the left-wing Congressmen who introduced the idea voted against it when it was put to a vote, that it was dreamt up as a way of scaring a very pro-Bush 18-30-year-old demographic into voting for Kerry. It took less time to mainstream this argument than it did to mainstream the idea that Israel ordered into action in Iraq.

Krugman claims that since Bush brought on a deficit while denying he would do so, so he will bring on a draft while denying it. Of course, Bush's tax cuts helped prevent a far worse deficit, which was actually caused by the recession alreadu underway. Krugman never even lists the as-yet-present-but-unreported recesssion happening at the time as a reason for the deficit.

The equivalent events in his argument won't be the factors he's laid out, but some pressing need for much broader, much more immediate military action, and a national mobilization. (A draft was necessary during WWI and WWII, after all.)

I'm supposed to take a comparative economic-military analysis from an economist who 1) couldn't see, and 2) doesn't understand the effects of, a recession?

More Stolen Honor Controversy

2004-10-19T09:33:00.001-06:00

The New York Times is reporting that one Kenneth J. Campbell is upset with the editing of Stolen Honor:

The suit, filed yesterday in Philadelphia, involves the film "Stolen Honor: Wounds That Never Heal," which accuses Mr. Kerry, the Democratic nominee for president, and the antiwar group he joined of making up the accounts of wartime atrocities that Mr. Kerry later talked about in his 1971 Senate testimony. The Sinclair Broadcast Group has asked its 62 television stations to show the movie this week.

The veteran who brought the suit, Kenneth J. Campbell, is shown saying he was not at one of the massacres later discussed, and asking another veteran whether he could produce accounts of the massacre.

A lawyer for Mr. Campbell, a decorated marine who is now a professor at the University of Delaware, said the film was edited to take out footage in which Mr. Campbell made clear that only soldiers who witnessed the atrocities firsthand would be allowed to testify at the hearings, and footage in which he recounted his military superiors ordering him to kill innocent civilians.

"It edits little clips to make it look like they're just making up instances," said the lawyer, David Kairys, who said Mr. Campbell was not connected with the Kerry campaign.

Well, they were just making up instances. VVAW's big "testimony" moment came in Detroit, in the so-called "Winter Soldier" hearings, where Vietnam critic Neil Sheehan shows that many "events" were imaginary, as was much of the "service" tendered by the witnesses. This extends even the VVAW Executive Director Al Hubbard.

It's possible, even likely, that members were unaware of the specific fraud being perpetrated. If the film seems to show Mr. Campbell collaborating in lying, when he in fact assumed that those around him were the real thing, then he might have reason to be upset. It seems like an easy thing to fix.

The NY Times Joins The Note

2004-10-19T08:31:00.000-06:00

Having the New York Times fact-check someone else these days is a little like being lectured to by Tony Soprano about law and order. Still, Davids Rosenbaum and Halbfinger do a nice job calling Kerry to heel about his rather wild accusations over the last couple of weeks concerning the draft, Social Security, and (possibly) the flu vaccine.

Coors Pulling Ahead

2004-10-19T08:06:00.000-06:00

Two sets of polls show Ken Salazar losing ground badly in the last couple of weeks of the campaign. Public Opinion Strategies, whose polls last month were widely discussed here, now has Coors with a 45-40 lead, where he had trailed 42-52 a month ago. The USA Today Gallup Poll has Coors erasing a 9-point deficit two weeks ago, to pull within a point, 49-48. (As an aside, it also has Amendment 36 collapsing to a mere 39% support, compared to 53% opposed.)

Neither poll would take into account a series of weekend side-by-side comparison interviews and profiles in the local papers. Those are online, but none of them really contains much new information.

Cross-Posted at Salazar v. Coors.

Early Voting

2004-10-19T01:43:00.000-06:00

Election Day is over for me. At least as a voter. I took advantage of Denver's early voting system, traipsing down to the local grocery, King Sooper, to vote this afternoon. If convenience gets any more complicated, I may never vote again.

I live in an area with a large number of ex-Soviet immigrants, and all evidence is that the system was designed to make them feel at home (the absence of a Russian-speaking election official notwithstanding). I asked the woman in front of me, a nice old Jewish immigrant whose house I walk the dog past every day, whether the Russians were getting a 2-for-1 special today. "Three-for-one," she said, just like in Russia. Just so long as they didn't let them count the votes, too.

First, you fill out a little blue form, show your ID, and the nice lady who's been doing this since the Gold Rush writes down your name and sends you to the second line. The fact that you get to the table first is no guarantee that you'll actually finish first. It's kind of a reality-TV show test, who can write their names out legibly the fastest.

The second line takes you to the Election Judges who, laptops at the ready, look up your name to make sure you're registered. That's great if they can read. The Nice Lady from 1859 re-wrote my name since she didn't think my handwriting was legible enough. The Nice Election Judge still thought it said, "SHARP." I've got my Social Security Number, my Driver's License Number, and my birthday on the form, and he stares at it like a side-dish he hadn't ordered, no doubt afraid he was going to have to give me a provisional ballot. I had him try again. Paydirt.

On to the third line. The one where you actually vote. You hand them the little slip with your precinct number on it (really, the ballot configuration) and into the little box you go.

When I arrived, there were lots of people in the third line, a fair number of people in the second line, and no waiting for Little Blue Slips. By the time I left, the Russians had backed up the second line, the Lady from Conestoga was struggling to keep up with the new arrivals, and as a result, there was nobody actually waiting to vote.

There are some very simple operations management principles at play here, mostly having to do with throughput and bottle-necks. By creating bottle-necks at the sign-in point, the geniuses who've let this system evolve (it can't have been designed), virtually guarantee that voting machines will shut down from boredom. There simply aren't enough people manning the check-in stations to keep things moving, and there's no use blaming it on the confused old woman from Minsk who doesn't understand "register." ("I can wote now? I wote? I go wote?")

I can only hope that they've got things a little more ironed out by November 2.

Common Cause v. Davidson

2004-10-19T01:02:00.000-06:00

I've finished reading through Judge Hoffman's opinion, and I'm looking forward to the day when Governor Owens appoints him to a higher post.

Judges are frequently people, too, and often they have a sense of humor. At the end of the the first day's testimony, the State suggested that things be delayed until the next morning. "One of the things to consider, your honor, is that we've got a roomful of political junkies here, and tonight is the Vice-Presidential debate."

(beat)

"What can I say? Life's full of choices. Let's try to finish."

As a result, judicial opinions are generally not as dry and opaque as people suppose them to be. They are full of references and footnotes, and often it takes a trained legal mind to understand where the judge is coming from, and what he chooses to ignore. But the opinions themselves are often quite readable.

It's Common Cause's bad luck that they got assigned to Judge Hoffman. I had suspected, from the little I was able to dig up that Tuesday evening, that he was a judicial-restraint kind of guy, not given to wild theorizing, and not likely to try to invent rights and impose his own values. Lower court judges are usually restrained by their fear of being overturned on appeal. Still, the Colorado Supreme Court got fairly inventive itself in the redistricting case, which might have emboldened less conservative folks.

Judge Hoffman starts out by framing the case as one of balancing goods - avoiding disenfranchisement vs. avoiding fraud. The Constitution deliberately recognized no specific "right to vote," but the Supreme Court has gotten there, anyhow, through the 14th Amendment. Then this:

But the Court has also recognized that the right to vote, unlike some other individual rights that are exercised in essential opposition to the state, is a right that has meaning only in a highly regulated social context. A vote is not merely one individual’s casual expression of political opinion at any particular time on any particular subject. Votes count, and because they count they must be sought and given in a structured environment that allows the votes of all other proper voters to count....

Maximizing voters’ access to the process is just one part of the compelling interest the state has in regulating the architecture of elections. Preventing voters from voting more than once, preventing otherwise ineligible voters from voting, and preventing other kinds of election fraud, is part and parcel of this same compelling state interest, as the Burdick Court expressly recognized when it included the words “fair and honest” at the very beginning of its litany of state interests in structuring elections. Professor Chemerinsky had it only half right, and perhaps not even that, when, in the aftermath of the controversy of the 2000 election, he wrote “What good is the right to vote if every ballot isn’t counted?” (Erwin Chemerinsky, Fairness at the Ballot Box, 40 TRIAL—APRIL 32 (2004).) A complete description of the state’s interest in regulating elections should have included something like, “What good is the right to vote, even if every ballot is counted, if the votes of duly registered voters are diluted by the votes of people who had no right to vote?”

Yes, that Erwin Chemerinsky. "Smart guy," huh? Well, yes, since only a smart guy would rate highly enough to be quoted at all.

The relevant provisions under HAVA are 302(a), which requires provisional balloting for those who aren't on the voting roles at the precinct, and 302(b), which requires first-time voters to show ID either when registering or when voting for the first time.

The Judge then briefly summarizes the history and reasoning behind the three issues at stake: 1) not allowing provisional balloting for those who've requested an absentee ballot, 2) counting only the Presidential vote for ballots cast in the wrong precinct, and 3) requiring ID to vote. The Plaintiffs are asking to overturn all three rules on the statutory grounds that they conflict with HAVA, and the second and third on the grounds that they're unconstitutional.

The judge also points out that, although the ruling is likely to be "permanent" for purposes of this election, it is in fact calling for a preliminary injuctions, so certain other requirements must be met. You want to know what they are? Read the opinion.

The judge found that the first requirement probably does violate HAVA. Having found that, there's no need to evaluate its Constitutionality. It's enjoined. Why? HAVA 302(a) is intended to preserve the right of people not on the precinct list to vote. Congress didn't specifically exempt those who had requested absentee ballots. Nor did it suggest that states may impose their own sets of restriction. Therefore, they must be allowed to vote provisionally.

The last two do not violate HAVA. Congress invites the states to impose stricter ID requirements.

With regard to precincts, the judge basically agreed with the intervenors that Common Cause was trying to elimiate precinct voting (a jurisdiction written into the Colorado Constitution), and that this was radically at variance with what HAVA was trying to accomplish. In fact, the conference committee specifically deliberated on this issue, and came to the conclusion that it wanted to preserve precinct voting.

The Constitional claims are a little more fun. With regards to the ID requirement:

It is also not just a matter of registration fraud. Several witnesses testified that many county registration lists have not been purged for many years, and therefore likely contain the names of many deceased and otherwise no longer eligible voters. The presence of those ineligible voters’ names also raises the spectre of voter fraud.

It may or may not be true, as Plaintiffs claim, that as an historical matter actual voter fraud has been rare in Colorado. But the state has a legitimate, indeed compelling, interest in doing what it can to make sure that last month’s fraudulent or no-longer-eligible registrant does not become next month’s fraudulent voter. Ms. Davidson and local election officials testified that once a fraudulent regular ballot is cast, and the voter’s identity forever divorced from the ballot, there is no way to remedy the fraud. The fraudulent vote will count. That is, election fraud must be detected before fraudulent regular ballots are cast and fraudulent provisional ballots are counted.

That's the compelling-interest part. Here's the "chilling effect" part:

Nor do I think it likely that Plaintiffs will be able to demonstrate that the identification requirement is discriminatory or will have disparate impacts.... Plaintiffs’ suggestion that the identification requirement will “chill” people without identification may be true (though there was absolutely no credible evidence of that), but then again it may also “chill” fraudulent voters. Whether one kind of chill justifies the other is precisely the kind of public policy choice that must be made by legislators, not by judges legislating under the cover of strict scrutiny.

After all of last year's attention paid to the 9th Circus, I had forgotten that actual judicial restraint lives on.

As for the precinct requirement:

In what must surely qualify as one of the understatements of the year, even Plaintiffs’ own witness, a Denver election official, testified that allowing voters to vote in any precinct they wished “could be problematic.”

...At the moment, if I were to try to design a system that maximizes the chances that fraudulent and ineligible registrants will be able to become fraudulent voters, I’m not sure I could do a better job than what Plaintiffs are asking me to do in this case—allow voters to vote wherever they want without showing any identification.

Judge Hoffman's decision has averted one of the worst-case scenarios, one of people voting without ID in multiple precincts, possibly casting provisional ballots in multiple counties. There are still holes in the system, but not ones addressed by this case.

Symposium Answer

2004-10-18T18:08:00.000-06:00

Why Vote For Bush? (In 250 words or less)

Terrorism is the defining issue of the day. Simply put, the President is serious about pursuing the war offensively, and about pulling the rug out from underneath the terrorists. Kerry is not. Vice President Cheney is serious about aiding in that war. John Edwards is not. President Bush supports Israel against the "international commnunity". Kerry would support the "international community" over Israel.

The "ownership society" is the best, most American adjustment we can make to a changing world. Kerry will get our fingers chopped off trying to turn back the clock. Bush will propose changes to give you more control over your life and its decisions. Kerry will reserve those decisions to the government. Bush may be allowing the government to spend too much. But "fiscal conservativsm" doesn't mean raising taxes to choke off a recovery. And it certainly doesn't mean engaging in class warfare, while making sure you pay a lower rate than the middle class.

Senator Kerry is a late-twentieth-Century, September 10th liberal: he mistrusts both American power and the American people.

President Bush trusts both.

Radio Shot

2004-10-18T16:02:00.000-06:00

It looks as though I'll be representing the Rocky Mountain Alliance in a radio guest shot on Lea Live Radio on Friday, October 29. The subject will be voter registration fraud, and potential ballot fraud. I haven't been told when I'll be on, but the show runs from 9:00-10:00 AM Mountain Time. The show does have live streaming now, as well.

Now, I have to stay on top of the story...

Judge Upholds ID

2004-10-18T13:25:00.000-06:00

Judge Morris Hoffman has thankfully upheld the ID requirement for voters in Colorado. So you can't show up and claim to be your neighbor.

Hoffman overturned the rule that those who had requested an absentee ballot could not vote provisionally, but did require them to sign an affadavit that they had not returned the absentee ballot. Hopefully, this will discourage the casual miscreant. Still, someone could show up and vote provisionally as someone else, a determined liar being a determined liar. Remember, provisional ballots require no ID, as long as they are not first-time voters.

Finally, the judge upheld the Secretary of State's ruling that those who vote outside their home precinct will only have their vote for President counted.

This ruling seemed in line with the way the judge was questioning both counsel and witnesses, although I also thought that the administrative burdens of cross-checking provisional ballots with absentees would prove decisive the other way.

For those of you who are interested, the decision is available here. It's large, 117K.

UPDATE: The Secretary of State's Office has issued a press release celebrating the decision, and encouraging people who have requested absentee ballots to vote that way. They call it a "minor adjustment," although they felt strongly to go to court to prevent it.

Personally, I think this is a beneficial decision, although I'd like to have a chance to read through the opinion before deciding if it's a good one. Scanning it, Hoffman seems to have grounded it in US and Colorado Constitutional history. Despite his assertion as I walked in that "there really is no such thing as legislative history," he in fact quotes Senator Bond about HAVA, and tries to determine what Congress was trying to accomplish, not what he believes to be morally correct.

I did think at the time that the state had had the hardest time making their case on the absentee-provisional conflict, and that they needed to do more to prove that the number of hand-counted ballots would overwhelm the clerks. My guess was that they had slid through, but the judge evidently felt otherwise.

More when I get a chance to read the opinion.

Aggressive Pursuit of Registration Fraud

2004-10-18T11:57:00.000-06:00

I may have been too hasty in my assessment of Secretary of State Donetta Davidson's refusal to seek a special prosecutor for the registration fraud. Both the Post and the Rocky have reports this morning that additional manpower will be brought to bear on the problem. Also Ken Salazar will recuse himself from legal issues regarding the election over the next two weeks, and, one presumes, until the election is settled here in Colorado. Instead questions will be handled by a team of attorneys, one Democrat and one Republican.

This is good news on the retrospective front, and assures that Salazar, who had a clear conflict of interest in interpreting election law, will be out of the process for the duration.

The bad news is that it's not clear that this closes very many of the at-the-polls loopholes that still exist in the process. The worse news is that neither paper seems to know enough about the process to ask those questions, or to be able to present the issue in an informed way to voters.

Still, it looks as though the ground is being prepared to immunize the electorate against Democratic charges of disenfranchisement. David Harsanyi features an interview with an indignant black woman, upset that Democrats' tactics may backfire, discouraging blacks from participating in the process. And Nicol Andrews notes that "Democrats aren't above cheating," provoking a sputtering, vaguely incoherent response from the local Kerry-Edwards campaign.

It's good to see these traditional charges finally being dealt with.

Losing Registrations - It's Not Just for Democrats

2004-10-18T10:42:00.000-06:00

Sure, Ted Kennedy was quick to jump all over unsubstantiated reports of Democratic registrations being lost in Nevada. Here's a case of a Republican registration being lost in El Paso County. No evidence of malice, just evidence that it's a two-way street.

Hey, Blue!

2004-10-17T19:40:00.000-06:00

I've gotten a couple of emails and comments asking about my safety and sanity working the polls under the "supervision" of Fair Vote Colorado, and Mark Grueskin's minions. Don't worry, I've faced worse: I used to umpire high-school baseball. You think these guys are bad. I can see you've never had to face the wrath of deluded parents who think that third strike you just called robbed their budding Babe Ruth II of a glorious major league career.

How ironic, though, that the nickname for umpires is "Blue."

Kerry's "Secret Plans"

2004-10-17T18:43:00.000-06:00

Apparently, John Kerry has this thing about secret plans. He has his own secret plan to end our involvement in Iraq. He claimed in Iowa that Bush has a "secret plan" to reintroduce the draft. He claimed in Wisconsin that Bush has a "secret plan" to have us all drinking soy milk, or something. And now, in Florida, he claims Bush has a "secret plan" to privatize Social Security.

(He seems to be tailoring his "secret plans" to his audience, which I guess is a good way of boosting his Return on Rhetoric. What I want to know is, why is the draft such a big deal in Iowa?)

Contest Idea: What Bush Secret Plans will Kerry unveil in your state?

Also, the Post is reporting that Kerry is encouraging his supporters to voter early, starting tomorrow. The Post repeats the campaigns line that this is to avoid a repeat of Florida 2000, but I'm not really sure how that would help in reality. More likely, Kerry sees his support cresting, and it trying to lock-in votes before second thoughts set it.

Road Trip 2003

2004-10-15T17:22:00.000-06:00

Not voter fraud. Instead, something nice for the weekend.

Why Mary Cheney?

2004-10-15T14:40:00.000-06:00

A number of blogs have been speculating on why Kerry-Edwards brought up Mary Cheney's lesbianism. Some claim that it's attempt to drive a wedge into the Evangelical community, to discredit the Bush-Cheney ticket with them. Others claim that it's an attempt shore up their own base, by reminding them of who really likes gays.

I don't buy either explanation. In the first place, I can't see too many evangelicals deciding that, "hey, Mary Cheney's gay. I think I'll vote Democrat." There are about 14 leaps of login involved in that kind of decision, and the President was nothing if not solid on social issues during that last debate.

As for the flip-side of that coin, the Democrats already have huge percentages of the gay vote that going to vote on that basis. See: the reignited boycott of Coors, and Andrew Sullivan, for starters.

No, I think it was a play for the middle: Republicans are hypocrites. Republicans oppose gay marriage, therefore they hate gays. But Cheney's own daughter is gay! Don't you see? Don't you see how hateful these people are, that they'd even go against the interest of their own family? They're still counting on the idea that Cheney is Darth Vader, that he must oppose gay marriage (even though he's pretty liberal on that subject).

It won't work.

It's argument, if it can be called that, at a symbolic, impressionist level, appealing to people's impressions of Republicans. It was reinforced when Elizabeth Edwards tried to spell it out for people: the Cheneys are ashamed of their daughter, she said.

The Cheneys have responded with dignified fury, which every parent will appreciate. I am always hesitant to demonize potential Presidents. Should they win, they'll have to lead the country. But Kerry really, "isn't a good man."

I have written before that Thomas Dewey lost in 1948 in part because he was an aloof jerk, evidenced by his stiffing a bunch of schoolchildren here in Denver. This was John Kerry's Thomas Dewey moment. We didn't see it in 1948, because there wasn't national television and the polling wasn't as good or as constant. But we see it now.

Welcome Hugh Hewitt Readers! While you're here, check out the posts on vote fraud here in Colorado.

No Special Prosecutor

2004-10-15T13:28:00.000-06:00

Secreatry of State Donetta Davidson will not seek a special prosecutor to look into the voter registration fraud here in Colorado.

State GOP attorney Mike Norton claimed Democratic Attorney General Ken Salazar has a conflict of interest in the investigation because he is running for U.S. Senate.

Davidson said there was no evidence of a conflict of interest and that Salazar is actively looked into claims that multiple voter registration forms have been filed under a single voter's name.

She said she saw no reason for Gov. Bill Owens to ask Salazar to step aside.

It looks as though Davidson is terrified that if she had asked for a special prosecutor, the Democrats would have screamed that she was in some way trying to influence the Senate race. Leave aside the obvious self-interest in such a charge. Isn't there at least an appearance of a conflict of interest? I realize that Salazar wouldn't want to make an admission that there might be politics involved in criminal investigations, but this is a pretty special case.

I would also remind readers that Salazar's office failed to file even so much as an amicus brief in defense of the Secretary of State in the Common Cause case.

Mrs. Davidson is the Judge Ito of the Colorado government. Perfectly capable of handling the boat while things are calm, completely thrown off by the perfect storm of a contentious election, massive voter registration, widespread registration fraud, and quickly-changing rules.

She started out trying to plug holes in a system that was open to abuse, and now has gone into full retreat in the face of bullying and scare-mongering by the other party.

A Citizen's Guide to Voter Fraud

2004-10-15T08:59:00.000-06:00

This morning, the two Denver papers have a total of 8 stories, plus at least one opinion column, on the issue of voter fraud. Most of the press coverage, though, is focused on registration fraud. I don't the time to pick apart Susan Greene's hit piece on the Secretary of State, or conspiracy-mongering by Democrats. Or ACORN's apparent inability to learn from its mistakes.

It's time to move from registration fraud to the potential for voter fraud. The AG's office is correct when they say that 40 registrations doesn't give a citizen the voting power of his whole neighborhood. So how do we move from registration fraud to actually upsetting a close election?

A large part of the threat is volume. There are now about three different streams of hand-counted ballots: 1) absentees, 2) provisionals taged under HAVA, where the existence of the registration needs to be checked, and 3) the same-day registrants, where the voter registration information needs to be confirmed.

If Common Cause wins, people who've requested absentee ballots will also be able to cast provisional ballots. So there's yet another form of cross-checking that has to happen.

They're expecting hundreds of thousands of each, at this point, which is going to make proper transcribing and recording difficult, even if we assume that everyone's honest, but tired. The Adams County Clerk admitted as much in an article in the Rocky the other day. (I have no idea what the rules are for poll-watchers at the clerk's office for the counting of provo and absentee ballots.) The possibility of a couple of clerks getting punchy and losing sight of what they're doing is probably greater here than any organized systemic vote-stealing, at least this year. But if we re-institutionalize massive hand-counting, we re-introduce all the pencil-lead-under-the-fingernail stuff that $10 million electronic ATM voting machines are supposed to eliminate.

Bleary-eyed clerks in the Colorado county with the most voters are spending nights and weekends inspecting hundreds of scrawled signatures and splotchy Social Security numbers in an attempt to head off massive voter fraud in Colorado....

The checks are time-consuming and tedious. And the onslaught of voter registration applications and applicants for absentee ballots is straining the office as never before, Miller said. The office is handling 107,000 absentee-ballot requests on top of a jump of 10,000 new voter registrations in less than a month.

"I have never seen anything like this," said [Susan] Miller, [the county's director of elections], a Jefferson County clerk for 15 years.

This is just for registration. Provisional and absentee ballots will be processed under much greater time pressure.

But wait, there's more!

By definition you can show up and vote provisionally without id. Election judges are not always from the precinct they're judging, which means they don't know the people involved. (I'll be an election judge at South High School, where I know no one.) It would be easy to show up and vote as yourself, regularly, and as your neighbor, provisionally. Then when your neighbor shows up, he has to vote provisionally since there's already a record of his having voted. The clerks now have 12 days to figure whose ballot is real. (This is the hypothetical that the judge kept throwing out at the hearing.)

If Common Cause wins, you won't need ID to vote regularly, meaning someone could pull this trick a few times, and there won't even be a paper trail. Your neighbor could still vote provisionally, but even if they decided he really was who he said, the clerk couldn't undo the fraudulent ballot.

Finally, there's the issue of HAVA-tagged voters. You can register by mail without any ID, but if you're a first-time voter, that registration will be "tagged" under HAVA. To vote even provisionally, you'll need ID. But the last four digits of your SSN suffice to remove the tag (and are considered ID by mail). The county clerks have no way of checking those numbers effectively. So it's possible to register and vote for the first time without ever showing ID.

Clerks don't validate any of this information, although they do check to make sure that the address exists in their county. They do check for duplicate information, meaning name/address/birthday combo. But someone could use similar names with different birthdates. The Post Office will almost certainly deliver those registration cards. ("Harsanyi" doesn't have this problem, but when I first moved here, I lived in the same apartment complex, not even the same building, as a Boris Sharf. I got his mail often enough that I went by to make sure he wasn't getting my paychecks. Even now, when I've moved and he's died, I occasionaly get mail for his widow, Sima, who's also moved.)

After the election, all this may be checked, on the way to the statewide computerized list, but then it's too late. The Secretary of State testified that once a ballot is turned into a vote and "cast into the stream," as he put it, there's no way to retrieve it. This is good for privacy, but it makes prosecutions harder.

The fact that some forms of ID are merely name-address identifiers without pictures, like a utility bill, where several names can be listed, probably adds permutations that I don't have time to ferret out. Again, watch the large apartment buildings are probably vulnerable to an attack this way, somehow.

As for absentee ballots, if you are already registered, you can change your registration without any ID, just a signature, by mail. Obviously, you can also change your neighbor's registration by mail, without ID. And the mailing address for the absentee ballot can be a PO Box. Or you could change his residence to a new precinct, or new address. He'll be notified, but there's a good chance he'll throw that out with all the other junk mail, 4 or 5 months out. Or that he won't bother to or be able to make the correction.

I would guess that that's the intent of some of the registrations that have been showing up with offices and PO Boxes. First-time voters can't vote absentee, so it won't work, but then, criminals try to pay for things with $40 bills, too.

Bottom line: we have all sorts of ad-hoc rules for all sorts of contingencies, but no system. A quick meeting with the county clerks isn't going to create a system, just unified rules.

State of the State

2004-10-14T16:39:00.000-06:00

It's all vote fraud, all the time! The latest news pretty much fits the ongoing patterns.

First, it's someone responsible finally admitting that maybe full speed ahead into dead calm waters at night in winter isn't the best strategy for getting across the Atlantic in one piece:

Adams County Clerk and Recorder Carol Snyder said she processed about 3,300 provisional ballots in the 2002 election.

That wasn't a presidential election, and it was before the massive effort to register voters.

Snyder said she expects to get at least twice as many provisional ballots in November, but she has the same amount of time to process them.

Extra temporary workers have been processing voter registrations, recruiting election judges and preparing for the election since June, Snyder said.

More will be added if it becomes necessary, she said.

"We worked 18 hours a day in 2002. I don't know if I can ask my staff to work 24 hours a day for 12 days," Snyder said.

Overtaxing her staff could lead to errors, Snyder said, and in a close race, every vote can make a difference.

Gee, maybe we ought to be paying attention to that scraping sound on the side ofthe ship, after all.

Then, it's Democrats waving the Bloody Chad. I received an unrequited fundraising email from Al Gore, containing this gem:

We were forced by the limitations of our campaign funding to make a series of tough choices -- including a decision to go for it in Florida and scale back in Ohio. If we had been able to pay for a full TV ad campaign in all of the key battleground states, we might not have lost Ohio by a thin margin. And of course, even though I think we won Florida, well, you know what happened there.

Remember. Every recount showed him losing. There was no statistical evidence that blacks were disenfranchised at a higher rate than whites. The networks - all four of them - were the only one guilty of vote suppression, with their early call with the polls still open in Republican counties out west. But he thinks they won Florida. Must've been the brownshirts.

And it's not like Mike Feeley's bitter or anything, either:

"Donetta has a history of ... incompetence in administering elections. It's plainly obvious that she's not prepared to administer this one," said Democrat Mike Feeley, a former congressional candidate who sued Davidson over her reluctance to count provisional ballots in 2002. "If Colorado becomes Florida this year, you can lay the blame right at the feet of Donetta Davidson."

Naturally, any warning that illegal voting is, well, illegal, got a
nasty response from Democrats. (How long before they start calling Secretary Davidson the "Red Queen."

"This is the classic move by Republican tacticians: create an environment of fear that discourages voters from showing up on Election Day, for this is the only way they know how to win," said Sue Casey, Kerry-Edwards 2004 Colorado state director.

Casey said the tactic had worked for Republicans in Florida in 2000.

"And now that they see Colorado slipping out of their previously firm grasp, they are bringing this tired tactic to the Centennial State."

These same Democrats had just been handed a golden gift by the Secretary's same-day registration rules. Trying to fix it so that we just look the other way while "vote early, vote often" is resurrected is contemptible.

The rules are confusing, and still up in the air, pending a court case. Final election judge guides haven't been issued, for instance. But Ms. Greene goes over the top here twice. First, the Secretary's office has issued a list of acceptable ID, so counties need not worry about that. Then this:

The "patchwork quilt" of election procedures, as some watchdogs call it, is not only confusing to voters, it may be illegal.

In the 2000 Bush vs. Gore case, the Supreme Court ruled that voting procedures must be consistent within each state. That ruling was echoed two years later when a judge sided with Feeley, who sued Davidson over disparate ways of counting provisional ballots in Colorado's new 7th Congressional District.

Of course, Bush v. Gore itself said that it was not to be used as precedent.

Look, I know this stuff is confusing. Worst case, which is starting to look like most likely case, is that we end up with a wildly permissive set of ad hoc rules, rather than a system. The good news is that if they get settled 3 days before the election, maybe the bad guys won't be able to figure out how to game the system in time.

Election Judge

2004-10-14T13:57:00.000-06:00

Paperwork is in the mail. I'll be an election judge at South High School this November 2.

Dear God, what in the world have I gotten myself into?

An AP Reporter We Can Trust

2004-10-14T13:05:00.000-06:00

The guys at Powerline have done Yeoman work exposing the misdeeds of the Associated Press. I'm glad to report that the fraud case is getting good coverage from the AP's reporter on the story, Jon Sarche. I've met Jon both at the court hearings and at the SecState's press conference yesterday, and he seems like an unbiased, stand-up guy. His reporting seems to hit the key facts, given his word limit, and I can't detect any leanings.

Now, if only we can trust his editors.

Our Favorite Local Columnist on Vote Fraud

2004-10-14T04:17:00.000-06:00

David Harsanyi of the Denver Post comes through with a hard-hitting column this morning, taking the Secretary of State to task for crumbling under pressure and permitting, in evident violation of state law, same-day registration.

Unlike most reporters here, Harsanyi has actually taken the trouble to talk to a county clerk, Robert Balink, of El Paso County, where Colorado Springs is located.

"I know that people want to disrupt the election process," explains Robert Balink, El Paso County clerk and recorder. "They want to throw it to the courts; they want the judges to make decisions to determine the outcome of certain elections."